The Minnesota Twins have had a difficult time scoring runs this season, entering their road series with the Baltimore Orioles 27th in runs per game and will look to bust out on Tuesday.
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles (-170, 8.5)
For the Twins to break through on offense, they’ll need to get to Orioles starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez, who has been one of the league’s best starters since being recalled from the minor leagues in July of 2023.
Rodriguez has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his past 15 starts with a 2.41 ERA with a fielding independent below 3.00 with 0.6 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings allowed.
On the other side, Chris Paddack gets the start on the mound for the Twins, who is making just his eighth start with the team since being acquired prior to the start of the 2022 season.
Paddack has a 4.25 ERA as a member of the Twins, but a fielding independent of 2.97 with 0.8 home runs and 1.8 walks per nine innings allowed while getting 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
While Paddack has to take on an Orioles lineup that entered the series tied for fifth in runs per game, their scoring has actually decreased at home, scoring nearly 5.3 runs per game at home compared to 5.7 runs per road game.
The Twins also provide Paddack with the protection of a bullpen that entered the series with a 1.53 ERA, which is the best mark in Major League Baseball.
With Baltimore also having a solid bullpen and its 3.26 ERA entering the series ranked eighth in the league, Tuesday sets up to be a pitcher’s duel.
The Play: Twins vs. Orioles Under 8.5 Runs
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