It’s finally here. It felt like the final two weeks of the NBA’s regular season dragged on and on forever, but it’s now time for meaningful basketball once again. It’s the playoffs.
To celebrate, let’s take a look at some of the many futures and series bets currently being offered over on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Finals MVP
Jayson Tatum (+255)
Starting things off with a chalk pick. I know. I apologize. However, if you like the Celtics to win the Finals — and you probably should — this is a much better way to get some exposure. Boston is +160 to be NBA Champion and a staggering -175 to win the Eastern Conference. There’s not a lot of value in either of those picks and it’s totally understandable. The Celtics finished the regular season with an absurd +11.7 net rating. For context, the Thunder ranked second in the league and only outscored their opponents by 7.3 points per 100 possessions. Heck, even down the stretch, with Boston often resting multiple players per game, the team managed a +11.6 net rating over its final 15 contests. That’s domination.
So where does Tatum fit it? Well, to be blunt, he’s the Celtics’ best player. It was an oddly quiet regular season for the man who led the NBA in field goal attempts in 2021-22 and 2022-23, but Tatum appeared happy to take on a slightly reduced scoring load with the likes of Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday now in town. Still, his usage rate remained above 30%. Tatum averaged 27/8/5 and shot 37.6% from three-point range. It’s not like he disappeared. Andre Iguodala aside, the Finals MVP tends to be the most predictable award in all of sports. It always goes to the winning team’s star. For the Celtics, that remains Tatum.
Conference Winner
Timberwolves (+1000)
While picking against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets (+135) seems foolish, you’ll have to admit, this is the most wide open the Western Conference has been in years. Literally any one of these teams could emerge as champion and I wouldn’t be shocked — and that includes Play-In entrants like the Lakers (+1400) and the Pelicans (+3000). At the same time, it feels like the Timberwolves are being a little disrespected. Despite finishing just a single game out of first place in the West, despite sitting third in the NBA in net rating during the regular season (+6.3), Minnesota has just the sixth-best odds to win its conference. Does that make any sense?
Personally, the Timberwolves check at lot of boxes in my “Team Ready to Make a Jump” list. This will be Minnesota’s third straight year in the playoffs under Chris Finch, with the previous two ending in first-round defeats. However, in 2023-24, the Wolves will have home court advantage in their opening series and a budding superstar in the form of Anthony Edwards, who appears on the precipice of making a name for himself in the postseason. I also think Minnesota’s style of basketball translates well into the playoffs. The Timberwolves thrive in a half-court setting. They rank 23rd in pace (97.8). They rank 29th in fastbreak points per game (12.4). Most importantly, they rank first in defensive rating (108.4). I think they can ride that identity a long way if Edwards can take another leap when it matters most.
Series Props – Exact Games
Bucks vs. Pacers: Seven Games (+180)
You’ll likely recall that the Pacers dominated this season series, winning four of the five times they played the Bucks. You’ll also likely recall that all five of those contests took place before the second week of 2024, so it’s really difficult to figure out how much weight they actually carry. Pascal Siakam was still on the Raptors on January 3, which was the day these two squads last squared-off. However, I think we can say the term “underdog” should be used lightly in regard to Indiana in this first-round set — especially with the health of Giannis Antetokounmpo still very much up in the air for Game 1. In other words, this series is going to be a battle.
These are two very similar teams. In fact, at the end of the regular season, the Pacers and the Bucks ranked 10th and 11th, respectively, in net rating, as both can seemingly score at will, yet struggle to keep anyone in front of them on the defensive end. Obviously, the availability of Antetokounmpo looms large — large enough where betting the Pacers to win the series at +110 makes some sense — but I believe Milwaukee can at least pick up one win on home court without his services in Game 1 and Game 2. If that’s the case, and we head to Indiana all tied up at 1-1, we’re well on our way to a Game 7. Fingers crossed, anyway.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
