The Milwaukee Bucks began the 2023-24 NBA season as bonafide title contenders and one of the best teams in the league but they enter the 2024 NBA Playoffs in a precarious position. The Bucks not only lost seven of their last 10 games to conclude the regular season but saw Giannis Antetokounmpo suffer a calf strain which forced him to sit the last three contests. Antetokounmpo didn’t have any Achilles damage, which is a good sign but his status remains unclear heading into the first round against the Pacers.
Milwaukee’s season has been a confusing one, with sustained stretches of excellence marred by confounding losses and sudden changes. The biggest shift came after 43 games, when the Bucks let Adrian Griffin go despite a 30-13 record. There were rumors of locker room rifts, Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard not aligning with Griffin’s vision and the general lackluster defensive play from Milwaukee. At the time Griffin was let go, the Bucks were just 3.5 games behind the Celtics for the top spot in the Eastern Conference.
Doc Rivers, who was an advisor to the Bucks prior to returning to the sidelined, began coaching the team at 32-14. Milwaukee went 17-19 during his tenure to conclude the regular season, finishing 15 games behind Boston and actually falling behind the Knicks on the final day of the season to land in the No. 3 spot. The Bucks did show some improvement defensively early under Rivers but have generally been worse since the coaching change.
Under Griffin: 30-13, 2nd in offensive rating (120.6) , 21st in defensive rating (116.8), 4th in pace
Under Rivers: 17-19, 18th in offensive rating (113.9) , 15th in defensive rating (113.3), 15th in pace
While the slowdown in tempo has helped the Bucks defensively, it has put their offense in an uncomfortable position. Rivers had to deal with some injuries to Lillard and Antetokounmpo, but the Bucks went from 124.6 points per game (tied for 1st) under Griffin to 112 points per game under Rivers. Even though there was some defensive improvement, Milwaukee was still worse in net rating.
Bucks defense under Griffin (per game) – 16th in opponent FG%, 4th in opponent 3pt%, 18th in rebounds allowed, 17th in assists allowed, 25th in points allowed
Bucks defense under Rivers (per game) – 10th in opponent FG%, 17th in opponent 3pt%, 20th in rebounds allowed, 10th in assists allowed, 13th in points allowed
Perhaps the most frustrating thing for Bucks fans are the losses to clearly inferior teams. Every NBA team goes through some inconsistent stretches but the Bucks have definitely been the most talented team to be hot and cold this season. Milwaukee lost a close contest to the Trail Blazers in Rivers’ second game and were dropped by the Jazz a few days later. Milwaukee appeared to figure things out during a six-game winning streak with triumphs over the Timberwolves, 76ers and Clippers but promptly dropped three of their next four games on a West Coast road trip. The Bucks had a four-game losing streak late in the year where they dropped contests to the Wizards, Grizzlies and Raptors. All those teams were in tank mode and had no business beating Milwaukee.
Rivers has underachieved in general during his long NBA career as a coach, which I’ve documented in more depth here. When it comes to lack of playoff success, it’s hard to argue anyone has done less with more than the current Bucks coach. Rivers had four straight conference semifinal exits before taking over in Milwaukee. He has blown a 3-1 series lead three times with three different rosters, and blew a 3-2 lead last season against the Celtics as the head coach of the 76ers. While the Pacers aren’t considered title contenders, they have beaten the Bucks four times in five games, including the In-Season Tournament semifinal game. Milwaukee is -180 to win the first-round series at DraftKings Sportsbook while Indiana is +145.
And yet Milwaukee’s struggles under Rivers might not matter.
When you have two superstars on your team who have been monsters when it comes to playoff production, it’s easy to mask a lot of problems. The postseason is a time when rotations get shorter, the games slow down a bit and the officials let things slide a bit more. That favors Milwaukee, especially with Antetokounmpo and Lillard in the fold.
The Greek Freak only played three games in last year’s playoffs due to a back injury but his 2021-22 postseason was insane. He averaged 31.7 points, 14.2 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game, but the Bucks fell to the Celtics in seven games largely due to Khris Middleton being hurt. In the three postseasons prior to last year, Antetokounmpo averaged 29.9 points, 13.4 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game in 42 games. He’s a force in the playoffs.
Lillard is no slouch either this time of year. In his last postseason appearance in 2021 against the Nuggets, the guard averaged 34.3 points and 10.2 assists per game on 46/45/94 shooting splits. When the Trail Blazers made a run to the conference finals in 2019, Lillard posted 26.9 points and 6.6 assists per game over 16 games. And there’s a reason “Dame Time” is a thing in the playoffs.
Despite the inconsistencies and injuries, Antetokounmpo and Lillard are one of the top two-man pairings in the NBA this season. They were +378 according to NBA.com during the regular season, and they probably would’ve built on that had they gotten more playing time together. When you have a tandem of this caliber that has a history of playoff production, it’s easy to overlook a coach who hasn’t won a title in over 15 years. The Bucks are +1400 to win the NBA title, which puts them in fourth behind the Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers. Milwaukee went 5-3 against those teams in the regular season.
A lot hinges on Antetokounmpo’s status. The week off before Game 1 helps tremendously but the Bucks will want to make sure he doesn’t aggravate his injury needlessly. If that means missing a game or two, Milwaukee has to believe it can overcome that. Two sets of trends going against each other are about to play out within one team. American poet Emily Dickinson said “a wounded deer leaps the highest”. The Bucks are about to find out how true that statement is.