The Masters are over. The NBA Play-In Tournament doesn’t start till tomorrow. Tonight baseball is the only game in town, ladies and gentlemen. If that sounds like something that excites you, keep on reading. In fact, I’ve got some bets you might also enjoy.
Let’s dive into all the action on the diamond.
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New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays
Luis Gil Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
On the whole, the Blue Jays are not a team that strikeout all that much. In fact, Toronto’s 20.3% strikeout rate is the seventh-lowest mark in baseball. However, this is the rare strikeout prop where matchup isn’t my primary concern. That’s how singular Gil’s stuff is. The RHP’s average fastball velocity in 2024 is sitting at 96.9 mph — the sixth-highest mark of any starter this season. Not surprisingly, Gil has 14 strikeouts in his nine innings. Eight of those coming on April 7 in an outing against this same Blue Jays lineup.
Unfortunately, large sample sizes are not a strong suit of Gil’s. We just sort of have to trust the small amounts of data we have. The 25-year-old has made nine starts at the MLB level since the beginning of 2021. He’s struck out at least six opponents in seven of those outings. In his 42.1 career innings with the Yankees, Gil is averaging 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings with a 30.6% strikeout rate. Considering Gil is fully built up — he threw 95 pitches in his last appearance — the over is the easy lean here.
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets
Over 8.5 (-115)
Martin Perez has started the season quite well for the Pirates. I’m here to say: I don’t buy it. To be fair, there’s nothing particularly egregious about Perez’s stats. An 88.0% strand rate is the main reason the lefty’s xERA (3.30) and SIERA (3.89) are significantly higher than his actual ERA, but neither figure is nightmarish. Perez has also managed to offset a 50.0% opponent hard hit rate with a 55.2% ground ball rate. He’s been fine. I can’t take that away from him. Yet, at the same time, we’re talking about a pitcher who struggled to do much well as recently as 2023. Among the 76 pitchers to throw 140 innings last season, Perez had the second-lowest strikeout rate (15.3%) and the sixth-highest SIERA (5.08). Perez is also left-handed. For the purposes of tonight, that’s quite important, as the Mets own the NL’s best wOBA against LHPs (.361).
Then there’s Adrian Houser. To be blunt, he’s not great, either. In his two starts with New York, Houser’s pitched to a 6.60 xERA, striking out fewer opponents than he’s walked. Houser’s fastball velocity is way down in 2024 and, since the beginning of 2022, he sports a very pedestrian 4.46 ERA. In other words: He’s not a pitcher who is to be feared. The Pirates currently sit seventh in baseball in runs scored (87). They’ll be able to do enough off Houser to get this contest to the over.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
