With the 2023-24 NBA regular season in the books, the focus for half the league now turns to the draft where there is significant uncertainty about who will be the No. 1 overall pick. Unlike past seasons, there’s no clear-cut top prospect for a team to take first and that means the winner of the draft lottery will have to consider several paths forward. It also means teams who don’t end up high in the lottery could still find a great player. This is one of those drafts where the teams that have invested in player evaluation and scouting will benefit significantly.
Here’s a look at a potential lottery outcome for the 2024 NBA Draft and a prediction of how the 14 picks will play out.
1. Toronto Raptors – Stephon Castle, UConn
The Raptors blew up the final remnants of their 2019 championship team this season, tanking in hopes of starting a new rebuild with a high selection. They get their wish in this simulation with the top pick. Masai Ujiri has valued size and versatility historically, so I think he takes Castle to further bolster his team’s defense. The UConn guard has shown flashes of being able to hit perimeter shots, and his defense is already elite. Castle could run the show or play off the ball with Scottie Barnes, and both are great defenders.
2. Houston Rockets – Dalton Knecht, Tennessee
Despite going .500 during the regular season, the Rockets fly up 10 spots in our lottery simulation. In most cases, Knecht wouldn’t go this high in the draft and is more likely to be in the middle of the lottery. However, the Rockets are a player or two away from consistently competing in the playoffs. Knecht would be an impact scorer off the bench right away and would continue to fit the profile of Houston’s recent draft picks. He’d be an immediate contributor, which is something the Rockets want.
3. San Antonio Spurs – Nikola Topic, Serbia
There will be a temptation for the Spurs to take a true point guard like Reed Sheppard or Rob Dillingham, but I think Gregg Popovich’s love for international players tips the scale in Topic’s favor. He’s not a great shooter but his ability to create for others is intriguing given San Antonio’s roster. Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell took big steps last season, and Topic could be the player who further unlocks them.
4. Detroit Pistons – Alex Sarr, Perth Wildcats
Despite the worst record in the league, the Pistons don’t win the lottery. However, they still might end up with the best player in Sarr. The NBL product doesn’t offer much yet offensively but Detroit has plenty of scoring. The Pistons need to improve defensively, which is where Sarr can immediately help. He’s got the speed to cover wings while having the height to match up with post players, giving him and Detroit versatility on that side of the ball. He’ll have time to slowly grow offensively in this setup.
5. Washington Wizards – Donovan Clingan, UConn
One of the quickest ways to clean up your defense is to add a 7-2 big man who can impact every shot at the basket. The Wizards have plenty of scoring but no one to stop the other team. That changes with Clingan, who anchored UConn’s title defense with impressive post-play on both sides of the ball. He’s got great ability as a pick-and-roll lob threat while locking down opponents on the other end. As long as Clingan can stay healthy, he’ll have a long NBA career.
6. Portland Trail Blazers – Cody Williams, Colorado
I don’t know how the Blazers feel about going back to the G League circles since Scoot Henderson didn’t look too great in his rookie season, so Williams profiles as a potential selection here. The Colorado product has good genes as the brother of Thunder forward Jalen Williams, and he’s a solid defender. If his perimeter shooting comes around, he can be a nice wing addition to a team loaded with guards.
7. Charlotte Hornets – Matas Buzelis, Lithuania
Buzelis was a potential No. 1 pick not too long ago, and it’s easy to see why. He’s a strong playmaker who can move the ball within a team setting well, which makes him a good fit for Charlotte’s scorers. Brandon Miller will continue to emerge as the team’s go-to option, and LaMelo Ball gives the Hornets a creator on the perimeter. Buzelis offers the ability for Charlotte to operate more from the high post due to his height. He’ll have to improve defensively and be a more consistent three-point threat but the signs of a great all-around player are there.
8. Memphis Grizzlies – Rob Dillingham, Kentucky
The Grizzlies might move up for Clingan specifically given their interior troubles this season. Memphis is in a rare position of being in the lottery despite consistent playoff appearances with this core, so this is a great opportunity to add game-changing talent. Sheppard is a candidate to go here as well but I think the Grizzlies will prefer Dillingham. He’s the more aggressive guard and can still stretch the floor well. I think having Ja Morant and Marcus Smart to model his game after will help tremendously.
9. Utah Jazz – Reed Sheppard, Kentucky
Keyonte George was the best Jazz rookie this season, though I think Utah views him as a better player off the ball. Sheppard had a disastrous NCAA tournament game but that shouldn’t take away from his lethal efficiency over the course of the season. He’s a floor-spacing point guard who can set up scorers well, which works for this team featuring the likes of Lauri Markkanen, George and Jordan Clarkson.
10. Houston Rockets (via Nets) – Zaccharie Risacher, France
Risacher fits the profile of Houston’s recent picks, although his inconsistent three-point shooting will give teams some pause. The Rockets can afford to find out whether his success this year from deep was real or a flash in the pan. He’s unlikely to get much playing time on this roster but this is a long-term pick for Houston.
11*. Atlanta Hawks – Ron Holland, G League Ignite
The Hawks have a lot of guards, though there’s a chance they make some deals to completely reset. If they don’t, I think Holland makes sense as a defense-first wing player who is a tremendous athlete. He’s aggressive in getting to the basket and has a great trajectory as one of the youngest players in the draft.
12*. Chicago Bulls – Isaiah Collier, USC
The Bulls have to accept Lonzo Ball won’t play at the same level he did previously if he plays at all. The point guard position has been unstable since then, with Chicago trying several options there. Collier will immediately add toughness to this team and can anchor the point defensively like Ball did, although it will take some time. He’s got plenty of scoring around him, so he won’t have to be as aggressive going to the basket as he did in college.
13*. Sacramento Kings – Kevin McCullar Jr., Kansas
As long as the injury stuff checks out, I think the Kings want to add immediate contributors instead of long-term projects. McCullar Jr. had a strong season with the Jayhawks and can score at all three levels, making him a good fit in this Sacramento offense. He’s an excellent defender as well, something the Kings could use on the perimeter.
14*. Portland Trail Blazers (via Warriors) – Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor
Even though Portland has a plethora of guards, Walter is best player available without reaching too far into the later end of the first round. There’s a possibility the Blazers will look to move one of their other guards if they do add Walter. He struggles with his shot but can still attack the basket well and defends better than most of Portland’s backcourt.
*Teams are subject to change depending on the outcome of the play-in tournament