All 30 NBA teams will be in action for the final day of the 2023-24 regular season on Sunday, April 14. While the 20 teams taking part in the playoffs and play-in tournament are set, seeding is still up for grabs. Only two teams are locked into their seeds in the Western Conference, with the Clippers and Mavericks set to face each other in the first round as the 4-5 matchup.
Here’s a breakdown of the playoff, play-in and seeding scenarios for the remaining teams in contention in the Western Conference.
Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets
These three teams are locked into the top three seeds, but they are all in contention for the No. 1 seed. If all three teams win, the Thunder will clinch the top seed. Oklahoma City can clinch the top seed if they win and if Denver wins. If the Timberwolves win, they will clinch the No. 1 seed as long as one one of Denver or Oklahoma City loses. If the Nuggets win, they need both Minnesota and Oklahoma City to lose to grab the No. 1 seed. If all three teams lose, the Thunder are the No. 1 seed. The Timberwolves will be the No. 2 seed if they win or if Denver loses, provided Oklahoma City wins. The Nuggets will be the No. 2 seed if they win and one of Minnesota/Oklahoma City loses.
Thunder seed possibilities
No. 1 seed: 4
No. 2 seed: 2
No. 3 seed: 2
Most likely seed: No. 1 (50% chance)
Timberwolves seed possibilities
No. 1 seed: 3
No. 2 seed: 4
No. 3 seed: 1
Most likely seed: No. 2 (50% chance)
Nuggets seed possibilities
No. 1 seed: 1
No. 2 seed: 2
No. 3 seed: 5
Most likely seed: No. 3 (62.5% chance)
New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns
This is a battle for the final automatic playoff berth and the No. 6 seed. The scenarios here are simple. If the Pelicans win, they are the No. 6 seed no matter what Phoenix does. If Phoenix wins, it needs New Orleans to lose to clinch the No. 6 seed. Otherwise, the Suns are locked into the No. 7 seed. The Pelicans have a 75% chance of being the No. 6 seed and the Suns have a 75% chance of being the No. 7 seed.
Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors
All three teams are in the play-in bracket but have a chance to get the No. 8 seed. The 7-8 matchup allows the loser a second chance to make the playoffs, while the 9-10 game is a “win or go home” situation. That’s why the No. 8 seed is still valuable, even if it requires participating in the play-in tournament.
If the Lakers win, they will be the No. 8 seed regardless of what Sacramento and Golden State do. The Kings will be the No. 8 seed if they win and the Lakers lose. The Warriors will be the No. 8 seed if they win and both the Lakers and Kings lose. If all three teams lose, the Lakers will be the No. 8 seed.
Lakers seed possibilities
No. 8 seed: 5
No. 9 seed: 2
No. 10 seed: 1
Most likely seed: No. 8 (62.5% chance)
Kings seed possibilities
No. 8 seed: 2
No. 9 seed: 4
No. 10 seed: 2
Most likely seed: No. 9 seed (50% chance)
Warriors seed possibilities
No. 8 seed: 1
No. 9 seed: 2
No. 10 seed: 5
Most likely seed: No. 10 seed (62.5% chance)