One season after making a play-in appearance as the No. 10 seed in the West, the Oklahoma City Thunder (56-25) are playing for the No. 1 seed in the conference when they face the Dallas Mavericks (50-31) Sunday in the final game of the 2023-24 regular season. The Thunder need a win to clinch the top spot as long as Denver also wins, while the Mavericks are locked into the No. 5 seed and will face the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs.
Dallas is resting all its key players since it has nothing to play for in this game. That means Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, PJ Washington, Maxi Kleber Daniel Gafford and Dante Exum have been ruled out. Dereck Lively is also out as he continues to deal with a knee injury. The Thunder are clean on the injury front.
Oklahoma City is a massive 19-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total set at 223.5. The Thunder are -1800 on the moneyline while Dallas is +1000.
Mavericks vs. Thunder, 3:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Thunder -19
As insane as it sounds for Oklahoma City to cover such a large number, the Thunder have been on a roll to close the season. They have won four in a row, and combined to win their last two games by 56 combined points. It’s possible Oklahoma City calls off the dogs late in this game and allows Dallas to cover this number but I think the Thunder go relatively hard until the end. Give me the heavy favorites to cover and clinch the No. 1 seed in the West.
Over/Under: Over 223.5
The Thunder are 2-2 to the over during their recent winning streak and 44-34-3 to the over on the season. Oklahoma City will keep pushing until this game is squarely in hand, so I don’t think player management will be an issue. Dallas’ secondary players will have the green light to fire at will and as long as enough of those shots go in, the over should hit Sunday.