Major League Baseball has taken over the sports landscape. Basketball is winding down and The Masters locked days ago. It’s spring. It’s Saturday. It’s baseball season. I’ll give some bets that I like for today and hopefully build off of a strong second week.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
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Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox
The Pick: Nick Lodolo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
The Reds are rolling out a six-man rotation. That means the return of Nick Lodolo after two rehab starts with the Louisville Bats (one good and one bad). It also means that the Reds could put a longer leash on their starters with one fewer bullpen arm. This is a subtle boost to the Reds’ starting pitching stats.
A matchup with the Chicago White Sox is a significant boost for the southpaw. The White Sox are bad and they are worse against left-handed pitching. It’s early but their 68 wRC+, .260 wOBA, .123 ISO and 31% K-Rate seem about right for this team. They will do their part but can Lodolo do his part in his 2024 debut?
Lodolo started 19 games (103.1 innings) as a rookie in 2022. He struck out 131 batters and maintained a 3.66 ERA. That’s quite a feat for a rookie pitching in Cincinnati. His 2023 season was cut short by a left tibia injury. His ERA ballooned to 6.29 in 34.1 innings thanks to his sudden propensity to allow long balls — 10 home runs in 2023 after just 13 home runs in 2022. Although the runs increased, his strikeout numbers improved. His K-Rate increased from an 11.4 K/9 to 12.3. The fact is he wasn’t healthy. Four of those starts were in the small park and three were against playoff teams. Furthermore, his 2023 struggles seem to be a bit of bad luck. His xFIP was 3.78, and his average launch angle was 8.3° with an exit velocity of 90.8 MPH. Lodolo is healthy and should return to form on Saturday in a favorable matchup with the White Sox.
Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners
The Picks: Christopher Morel 0.5 Home Runs (+330)
Chasing home runs is fun. It was fun last week when the Isaac Paredes home run prop came home at +650. This week the target is Seattle’s Emerson Hancock. The ballpark isn’t preferable but that only boosts the odds. Hancock just got rocked by the Brewers. He allowed eight runs in 3.1 innings. While he did strike out six, he allowed 11 hits and two home runs — he’s surrendered three in two starts. The 2020 No. 6 pick has good stuff and potential. That’s down the road. The rookie is still a thrower, not a pitcher. Making matters worse is that he might not even be a thrower. His velocity has dipped and the Mariners considered skipping him in the rotation. He opened the game with a 94 MPH fastball but the speed dipped to 91 by the third inning. That 91 MPH fastball was his last pitch as it sailed over the wall with a 100.5 MPH exit velocity.
There are two Cubs that stand out against right-handed pitching. Christopher Morel (RHB) hit 26 home runs in his second season and 19 were against right-handed pitching. This season he has 20 HardHits in 40 events. The concern with Morel is that his Launch Angle is 16.2°. That’s where it has been for the first three seasons. It doesn’t make him a particularly appealing option. Michael Busch (+450) doesn’t have the same amount of HardHits, but he puts the ball in the air (22° LA). That results in Barrels (14.8%). Both have an exceptional ISO vs. RHP to begin the season (Morrell .237, Busch .250). Normally the edge would go to Busch as a left-handed batter, but Emerson Hancock has been much worse in righty-righty matchups in his two starts. It’s a small sample size, but all of Hancock’s homers have been to right-handed batters. Even more glaring is his flyball split. Hancock’s flyball percentage is 20.8% to LHB, but it’s 77.8% vs. RHB. This should more than make up for Christopher Morel’s launch angle.
Milwaukee Brewers at Baltimore Orioles
The Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Money Line (+124)
Revenge is a dish best served cold. The Orioles traded Hall to the Brewers during the offseason. Hall wants nothing more than to beat his former team in Baltimore. The Orioles have an exciting lineup and are the darlings of baseball. This isn’t a walk in the park for Hall, but it is. The fear heading into this season was that the Orioles’ lefty-heavy lineup would struggle against left-handed pitchers. That’s exactly what is happening. Baltimore has a .235 wOBA, .081 ISO, 50 wRC+ and 23% K-Rate vs. LHP.
DL Hall isn’t a Hall of Famer, but this is his third big-league start. Heading into the 2024 season, Hall was ranked as the No. 93 prospect in baseball. His xFIP increased from 3.94 to 4.31 between his two seasons at Triple A and his K-Rate dipped from 14.7 K/9 to 12.9. That’s still a strong K-Rate. In 19.1 Major League innings last season, he struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings. Hall only struck out one in his Brewers debut against the Mets. That’s not much of a blemish on his stat sheet. The Mets have been terrific against left-handed pitching (129 wRC+ and a 14.4% K-Rate), but Hall was able to hold them to two runs in four innings. In a softer matchup against the Mariners, Hall struck out five in 5.1 innings while generating a 52.9% groundball rate.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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