Can I interest you in some afternoon baseball? Thursday is a travel day for most MLB teams, leaving us with a truncated five-game featured slate that gets going just past noon on the east coast. Lunch and a ballgame. A classic combination.
Let’s dive in and find some studs and values.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
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PITCHER
Stud
Editor’s Note: Today’s game between the Tigers and the Twins has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins, $9,600 – Skubal’s been about as good as could possibly be imagined through two starts. Over 12.1 innings, the left-hander owns a 1.70 xERA and a 32.6% strikeout rate. His average fastball velocity is up. His swinging strike rate is a gargantuan 18.3%. What’s not to like? Skubal also draws an advantageous matchup on Thursday in the form of the struggling Twins. After nine games, Minnesota was the lone team in baseball with a batting average below the Mendoza line (.181). It coupled that sad fact with the league’s second-highest strikeout rate (28.2%). Skubal could be looking at a double-digit strikeout total in this one.
Value
Jon Gray, Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics, $6,500 – Gray hasn’t had a particularly strong start to the season, but here’s what I’ll say about his viability on Thursday: He’s cheap and he’s facing the Athletics. We’re also not dealing with small samples when it comes to Gray’s track record. In over 200 career starts, the former third-overall pick owns a 3.86 xFIP. He’s got 1,130 strikeouts in 1,221.1 innings. I know he can be good. I’ve seen it for almost a decade. Gray threw 84 pitches in his last outing. He’s fully built up and, again, his opponent is Oakland. I’ll take my chances.
INFIELD
Stud
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets, $5,500 – I’ve said it a thousand times in this space: You want to use Albies when the Braves are facing a left-handed opponent. It’s not that Albies can’t hit RHPs, it’s more that he’s incredible versus southpaws. To wit, in 847 career plate appearances within the split, Albies is slashing .337/.363/.570 with a 145 wRC+. Knowing that, it’s not too surprising that the infielder absolutely owns Jose Quintana ($6,700) in their prior meetings. Albies has six hits in 10 at-bats, including a pair of home runs.
Stud
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, $4,900 – I know. Believe me, I know. Lindor would probably like to re-start 2024. In 53 plate appearances, the former All-Star is batting .089. It’s been extremely rough. However, there’s two reasons to like Lindor on this small slate. One, he’ll probably be a variance play. Two, Allan Winans ($7,900) is making a spot start for the Braves. Winans struggled in his time with Atlanta in 2023, specifically with left-handed bats. The 28-year-old faced 92 LHBs and they combined to slash .357/.391/.595 with a .413 wOBA. Woof.
Value
Ezequiel Duran, Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics, $2,700 – The Rangers have one of this slate’s highest implied team totals and Duran offers some cheap exposure to a logical stack. It’s been an ugly beginning to the season for JP Sears ($5,000), who has as many strikeouts (2) in 9.1 innings as he does home runs allowed (2). Sears also possesses an inflated 8.68 ERA. As for Duran, he’s always been at his best against LHPs, which is why he’s strictly a platoon bat for Texas. In 2023, posted a .231 ISO and a 124 wRC+ in his 132 plate appearances versus left-handers.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets, $6,500 – We all know how potent Acuna was against left-handed pitching last season. In fact, among qualified hitters, Acuna owned the highest expected wOBA within the split (.475). However, what makes the reigning NL MVP really interesting on Thursday is his prowess on the base paths. Acuna stole three bases on Tuesday when these two teams last played. That’s not a fluke. Not only because Acuna racked up 73 swipes in 2023, but because the Mets have allowed a league-high 21 steals and have yet to catch a single runner. I’d look for Acuna to be active once again.
Stud
Editor’s Note: Today’s game between the Reds and the Brewers has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, $5,200 – Yelich is red-hot at the moment. Like, scorching hot. After another home run on Wednesday — his fifth of the season — the former NL MVP is slashing .316/.409/.737 with a 198 wRC+ in his first 45 plate appearances. It’s a small sample, but GABP is a small stadium. In an offensive environment as well regarded as Cincinnati, I’ll spend up for a guy in an obvious groove.
Value
DJ Stewart, New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, $2,900 – Stewart’s slash line to start the season is wild. Despite just a single hit in 22 plate appearances — it was a home run — the veteran still has a .409 OBP and a 124 wRC+ thanks to six walks and two HBPs. That doesn’t really translate to DFS, but the point is this: Stewart will be in the lineup against Winans. He’s left-handed, he has some pop in his bat and, most importantly, he’s under $3K.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
