Update: Everyone is in for the Nuggets, who are 7.5-point favorites now. The total comes in at 213. I still like the Timberwolves as the ATS pick and the under on the total.
Update: Everyone except for Towns is in for Minnesota. Jokic, Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are probable for Denver, while Murray and Gordon are considered questionable.
The No. 1 seed in the Western Conference is on the line Wednesday evening with the Minnesota Timberwolves (55-24) and Denver Nuggets (55-24) meet up in the Mile High City. Both teams are coming off a win Tuesday, and both are on a two-game winning streak. The Timberwolves have won two of the three meetings so far between the sides, and would win the season series if they triumph in this one.
We’ll know more in terms of players being rested later in the day. Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert both played big minutes Tuesday but given the stakes, I think both play. Karl-Anthony Towns is close to returning but is considered unlikely to play in this game. The Nuggets managed minutes for most of their players Tuesday, but the statuses of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are worth monitoring. Aaron Gordon could also return after missing Tuesday’s game.
The Nuggets are 6-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total coming in at 213. Denver is -225 on the moneyline while Minnesota is +185.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Timberwolves +6
Minnesota is 6-6 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back while Denver is 4-8 ATS in the same situation. The Timberwolves have been solid in the underdog role with a 12-8 ATS mark, but they are just 8-8 ATS as the road underdog. The Nuggets are 20-19-1 ATS as the home team and 19-19-1 ATS as a home favorite. They are 32-8 straight up in Denver.
I expect everyone outside of Towns to be good for this clash, which makes me lean towards Minnesota. The Timberwolves have covered this spread in every matchup so far between the teams this season and I see no reason for that to change Wednesday.
Over/Under: Under 213
These teams are opposites when it comes to totals on back-to-backs. The Timberwolves are 10-2 to the over with no rest, while the Nuggets are 6-6 in the same situation. Minnesota is 39-39-1 to the over on the season while Denver is the most under-friendly team at 32-47 to the over. In the three head-to-head meetings so far, these teams have only gone over this total once. I expect another tightly-contested defensive slugfest tonight, so I’ll go with the under here.