Update: Doncic is in for the Mavericks, while Dereck Lively remains out. Maxi Kleber is probable. Almost everyone is in for the Heat, including Tyler Herro. Terry Rozier is being listed as questionable. The line is now Mavericks -1.5, and the total is 214. I still like Dallas as the ATS pick, but I’ll change my total pick to the over with Doncic set to play.
The Dallas Mavericks (49-30) will meet the Miami Heat (44-35) will complete the second night of a back-to-back set Wednesday when the sides meet in South Beach. The Mavericks are a on a four-game winning streak and have clinched a playoff spot, while the Heat defeated the Hawks in overtime Tuesday but remain in the play-in zone. The Mavericks won the first meeting between these teams 114-108.
We won’t get official injury reports until later in the day but the statuses of Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro will all be worth monitoring. Doncic and Herro seem likely to rest, while Butler might suit up given where Miami is in the standings.
The Mavericks are 3.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total sitting at 214. Dallas is -155 on the moneyline while Miami is +130.
Mavericks vs. Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Mavericks -3.5
Dallas is 10-3 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back set, while Miami is 6-5-1 ATS is the same situation. The Heat are 1-8 ATS as home underdogs this season but are 17-17 ATS overall in the underdog role. The Mavericks are a league-best 18-4 ATS as road favorites.
Miami has been too inconsistent to back as the underdog and the Mavericks still have the possibility of getting homecourt advantage in the first round. I think Dallas shows enough here even if Doncic doesn’t play to get the win and cover.
Over/Under: Under 214
Both teams trend towards the under when completing back-to-back sets. The Mavericks are 6-6-1 to the over on the second night of a back-to-back while the Heat are 4-8 to the over. Dallas is 20-18-1 to the over as the road team while Miami is 19-19 to the over at home. It’s a low total and the last matchup did go over this line, but I do think fatigue will kick in tonight and there’s a possibility some stars are rested. For now, I like the under.