Tuesday has games being played all throughout the day. This article will focus on the evening games, so let’s get into some plays.
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Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics
The Pick: Rangers run line -1.5 +105
I know it can be uncomfortable taking the home team on the run line since they may not bat in the ninth. However, this pitching matchup is very lopsided. Alex Wood is taking the mound for the A’s while the Rangers send out their ace in Nathan Eovaldi. He’s already looked stellar through 13 innings, allowing justtwo runs on eight hits with 11 strikeouts. Meanwhile, Wood has faced the Red Sox and Guardians and allowed nine runs on 13 hits with 10 strikeouts in 8.1 innings.
The early issues for Wood is that he’s not generating ground balls at the rate he usually does. Over the past couple of seasons, his ground ball rate was between 45-50% Through two starts, he’s only at 35%, which means more fly ball and line drives. While the sample is small, the Rangers have hit sinkers well to start the season, slashing .339/.393/.500. They hit lefties well to begin with, with a .355 wOBA, and a 136 wRC+. They should win this game by at least two runs tonight.
Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
The Pick: Josiah Gray under 15.5 outs recorded -110
It doesn’t seem likely that Gray will record an out in the sixth inning with the way he’s been pitching. He’s made two starts against the Pirates and Reds and hasn’t recorded more than 4.1 innings either. He’s been torched in both games, allowing a total of 13 runs on 15 hits with five walks. The Giants haven’t been great offensively with only a .282 wOBA and a 84 wRC+ against righties but Gray can’t get out of his own way. His command continues to haunt him and has a 5.4 BB/9 through 8.1 innings. Walking that many batters is just asking for trouble. Unless he suddenly has fixed his command issues, it’s hard to imagine he can be efficient enough to make it into the sixth inning. For reference, he went over 15.5 outs last season in just 12 of his 30 starts.
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: JP Crawford over 1.5 H/R/RBI -110
When I see Chris Bassitt on the mound, I immediately look at these props for the lefties on the opposing offense. That is the kryptonite for Bassitt, who has faced 17 of them this season and has allowed six runs (five earned) on nine hits, including two home runs and a double, giving him a .722 wOBA against them. Very small sample for sure, so let’s look at 2023. Spanning the entire season, lefties tagged him for a .357 wOBA with 21 of his 28 home runs allowed. With Crawford hitting atop the Mariners lineup, I’ll take him to go over 1.5 hits, runs and RBI at -110.
I also have a SGP up on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight that you can tail. On your mobile device, log onto DKSB, go to the MLB tab and scroll through the parlay cards until you see this handsome face.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
