Pirates vs. Tigers Bets: How to approach player props from Pittsburgh-Detroit on April 8

The Pirates are an NL Central-leading 8-2. The Tigers are 6-3, which is good enough for second in the AL Central. So, things are going just as everyone predicted.

What’s particularly shocking about the Pirates’ early success is they just won 2 of 3 vs. the Orioles. Pittsburgh’s first two series came against the less-than-impressive Nationals and Marlins — similar to the Tigers going to work against two last-place teams and the floundering Mets — but Baltimore is still legit, despite a 5-4 start.

Here’s a look at Reese Olson (DET) and Mitch Keller’s (PIT) 2023 individual handedness splits from their respective player pages in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:

REESE OLSON

MITCH KELLER

Keller was able to handle whatever mix of righty and lefty bats he faced throughout 2023, so Detroit’s mix shouldn’t be too much of an issue for him. In fact, this is a chance for him to both bring down his 6.55 ERA and potentially get back on track in the strikeout department. His strikeout prop is 5.5 and his outs recorded prop is 17.5, with the former providing more value if playing both to the over (-115 and -130, respectively, as of writing). Both are playable, but of the two, I’m going to lean toward Keller over 17.5 outs at -130 because while he’s due for more punchouts, he’s also due for more groundouts based on how he’s pitched throughout his career and his early 2024 results. Also, in the 10 Keller starts which the Pirates were favored last season, he held opponents to a .198 average and .573 OPS.

Now, here’s a look at how some of this game’s hitter have performed over their last five games against their hits line for Monday’s matchup via the Consistency Sheets in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub:

Oneil Cruz has been on an absolute tear. A lot of that success has been coming against right-handed pitching. Between his hits+runs+RBIs and total bases lines, there’s more value with the latter (-130 vs. +120, respectively).

In seven of Pittsburgh’s 10 games, Cruz has logged two-plus hits+runs+RBIs. The same can be said of Cruz when it comes to logging two-plus total bases. There’s been a lot of crossover between those two plays, with Cruz only logging one performance where he had two-plus hits+runs+RBIs but not two-plus total bases and one performance where he had two-plus total bases without going over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. With Cruz having logged five multi-hit games and three extra-base hits so far, I like the longer odds for Cruz over 1.5 total bases.

For those looking to do a Same Game Parlay focused on multiple players logging at least one hit, Cruz has to be the starting point. From there, I like Bryan Reynolds, despite the fact he’s struggled with righties to start the season. He hit in the .250 range against right-handed pitching in each of the last two seasons, yet he has a .179 average against righties to start 2024. Reynolds is due to bounce back, and parlaying him with Cruz provides +105 odds.

For those looking to add a third name to the Same Game Parlay, Michael A. Taylor and Gio Urshela stand out. Taylor is 8-for-20 (.400) against righties to start the season and would bring the SGP’s odds to +260. Urshela takes a little pressure off the play being so Pittsburgh-heavy, and he’s hitting .444 in the early going against right-handed pitching. However, an Urshela-Cruz-Reynolds parlay provides +175 odds, as opposed to the Taylor-Cruz-Reynolds option. Going with all four players to log a hit brings the play to +360. (And for those who want to manage exposure to Cruz, a Urshela-Taylor-Reynolds SGP provides +240 odds, as of writing.)

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.