The 2024 NCAA Tournament will be won by a one-seed as the Purdue Boilermakers and Connecticut Huskies hook up in Arizona on Monday to decide who wins this year’s title.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Connecticut Huskies (-7, 146)
While both teams have been highly efficient on offense, with Connecticut leading the nation in points scored on a per-possession basis and Purdue ranking fourth, the slow tempo in this game will keep it lower scoring.
While Purdue is 193rd overall in the nation in total possessions per game this season, they’ve played at a tempo that is nearly 4.4 possessions fewer in the past 14 games than in the first 24 games of the season while Connecticut is 330th in the nation in possessions per game in games played away from home.
The Huskies have been the more dominant defense, ranking 11th in the nation in points allowed on a per-possession basis and Connecticut is allowing opponents to make just 31.4% of their 3-pointers, which ranks 41st in the country.
Purdue has also been dominant along the perimeter, ranking second in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 40.6%, though that percentage goes from 45% at home to 36.9% in a road or neutral court environment.
On the defensive side, Purdue is 50th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 31.6% and 51st in points allowed on a per-possession basis. The Boilermakers also rank 21st in road defensive rebound rate with opponents getting an offensive rebound on just 22.9% of their missed shots.
The Huskies are also preventing a lot of second chances, allowing opponents to rebound just 23% of their missed shots, which ranks 33rd nationally, while ranking second in the nation in opponent 2-point shooting percentage at 43%.
Connecticut has surrendered 67 points or fewer in 20 of their last 23 games and Purdue has allowed 71 points or fewer in regulation (which excludes overtime) in nine straight games. Thus, Monday’s title game should likely feature lots of defense.
The Play: Purdue vs. Connecticut Under 146
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