For the first time since 2017, two No. 1 seeds will face off in Monday’s national championship game when the defending champs Connecticut Huskies will meet the Purdue Boilermakers, bringing star centers Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey face to face. Clingan and Edey have been dominant forces in this tournament thanks to their physical advantages over opponents, but their clash against each other will have implications beyond the outcome of the championship game.
Here’s a look at how both centers have performed in this tournament, where they can gain an edge in the title game and how the matchup will impact their respective projections for the 2024 NBA Draft.
When Purdue is on offense
Edey is currently projected to be a mid to late first-round pick across most mock drafts, showing how much he’s grown over the last season. He’s averaging 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game in this tournament on 65.4% shooting from the floor. His ability to post up and gain position is second to none, and few teams have been able to match up with him one on one. That changes with Clingan, who has the height and build to prevent him from establishing a post presence consistently. Clingan is also a better leaper, and can block shots at a higher clip than most of Edey’s opponents.
Purdue’s perimeter players have largely been able to stay on the outside since most opponents have had to double Edey to have a shot. That gives the big man a chance to find shooters. That’s not likely to happen with UConn’s perimeter defenders. Look for Braden Smith, Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer to make more cuts through the lane, and Edey will have to find those guys in space. He hasn’t had to pass much in college, but that’s an area of his game that’ll need to develop for him to be successful. Edey will also have to be aggressive against Clingan, potentially using fakes and trying to get the Huskies big man in some foul trouble. If Edey can continue to put up his usual numbers, he’ll likely rise into the lottery as a high-level offensive big man.
When UConn is on offense
At the moment, Clingan is projected to go in the early portion of the lottery. His stock really took a jump after the Illinois game, where he blocked five shots officially and impacted more than a dozen others unofficially. The Huskies center is averaging 16.2 points, 9 rebounds and 3.6 blocks per game on 64.8% shooting. Edey’s defensive chops have been questioned, and is seen as a weakness for the big man. He’s averaging just 1.8 blocks per game, which is largely due to his significant height advantage rather than defensive skill. He’s not going to be able to simply put a hand up to reject Clingan’s shots, especially since the UConn center is more mobile. However, if Edey can show some resistance, his stock will jump. Alternatively if Clingan can bully Edey down low to give UConn some easy baskets, the Huskies center will cement himself as a high-lottery pick.
The transition advantage
UConn pulled away from Illinois in the second half due to elite execution in the transition game, headlined by Clingan consistently running the floor with little resistance. This is where Purdue and Edey could really struggle. Even against NC State, the Boilermakers were giving up transition opportunities which the Wolfpack messed up routinely. UConn won’t be as forgiving. Edey is slower than most bigs running the floor, which isn’t really his fault because it’s understandably hard to go 100% at his height. However, if Clingan can consistently beat him down the floor, it’s going to expose a major weakness in Edey’s game.
Who has the most at stake?
In terms of losing ground in the draft, Edey has the most at stake. His play so far in the tournament has put him into the middle of the first round at best but this game could expose some of his faults. He came back to school because of these weaknesses, but he hasn’t really had to show he’s improved in this regard.
Clingan is probably going to be taken in the lottery no matter how this game goes but there will be some questions about his ability to play consistent post defense if he does let Edey go for a major game. Because Clingan is younger, he’s probably going to be given more leeway while Edey will be judged as more of a finished product.
Most likely outcome
I do believe Edey will get plenty of touches for Purdue. The Boilermakers aren’t suddenly going to change their style, which means the big man will get his opportunities. While I don’t expect him to be completely shut down, I do think he’ll be more contained. On the opposite end, I actually think Clingan might not be Purdue’s biggest issue. UConn’s perimeter players will have the edge in each matchup defensively, and Edey hasn’t shown he’s good enough to recover when the likes of Smith, Loyer and Jones get beat. That’ll open up Clingan as a lob threat.
The biggest area of concern for Purdue will be the transition game, where Clingan and UConn have a considerable edge. I think that’ll ultimately be the difference in the matchup between the two big men, and separate Clingan from Edey as the superior NBA prospect.