We’ve got a massive Texas showdown in the Western Conference Sunday afternoon as the Houston Rockets (38-39) meet the Dallas Mavericks (47-30. Houston needs a win to stay alive for the play-in tournament, while Dallas is fighting for an automatic playoff spot. This is the final meeting between the teams this season, with the Mavericks going 2-1 in the first three games.
Amen Thompson is considered probable for the Rockets. Alperen Sengun remains out for Houston. Luka Doncic and Maxi Kleber are questionable for the Mavericks, while Dereck Lively, Josh Green and Greg Brown remain out.
The Mavericks are 8-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total sitting at 227. Dallas is -325 on the moneyline while Houston is +260.
Rockets vs. Mavericks, 3:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Rockets +8
The Rockets are 42-33-2 ATS on the season, going 24-24-1 ATS as the underdog. They are an abysmal unit away from home though, going 12-25 straight up and 16-20-1 ATS as the road side. The Mavericks have won their last two and nine of their last 10, surging towards the top of the West. They are 20-19 ATS at home and 14-12 ATS as the home favorite.
Even though Doncic is expected to return and the Rockets are terrible on the road, Houston is the more desperate team in this game. The Rockets have to win in order to stay alive for the play-in tournament. While I don’t believe they’ll do that, I think they can cover an eight-point spread.
Over/Under: Over 227
Houston is 38-37-2 to the over this season while Dallas is 34-42-1. Two of the three meetings between these teams went over this total, and it was the Mavericks winning both those contests. Even though Dallas trends to the under at home (15-24 on overs), I do think we see more scoring here with Doncic back and Houston trying to stay alive for the play-in tournament. Take the over in this one.