It’s the second weekend of the 2024 Major League Baseball season. Some questions have been answered but many unknowns remain. Teams, fans and sports books are still getting a read on the 2024 MLB season. This presents opportunities. I’ll give some bets that I like for Saturday’s betting card and hopefully win some picks on April 6th.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
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Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers
The Pick: Seattle Mariners Money Line (+102)
Seattle strikes out a lot. They’re not striking out against lefties because their lineup is predominantly right-handed. DL Hall is a promising prospect but he’s a prospect. Better days lay ahead, but the growing pains come first. Hall only lasted four innings in his first start against the Mets. He struck out one batter and did not keep the ball on the ground. The Mets weren’t fooled. They made contact and hard contact (50% hard hits on 16 Batted Ball Events). That’s a recipe for disaster in the hitter-friendly park in Milwaukee.
The menu isn’t much better on the other side. Bryce Miller allowed four runs in his 2023 debut. Two home runs on too many flyballs will do that. One game didn’t go his way. He did manage to strike out six batters through five innings (91 pitches). Miller isn’t an ace but he proved last season that he can keep his club in the ball game. In 131.1 innings (25 starts), he posted an 8-7 win-loss record with a 3.98 FIP. Seattle’s bullpen has his back. They’re sporting a 3.32 FIP and have not blown a save this season. This simply comes down to one pitcher being worse than the other.
Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Isaac Paredes Over 0.5 Home Runs (+675)
Pitching in Colorado is rocky. The Rockies rookies and prospects get rocked. The truth is that it’s hard for veterans and superstars. Ryan Feltner is not a star. He’s barely a prospect (No. 21 prospect in the Rockies organization in 2021). His fastball is adequate and his slider is above average. He occasionally mixes in a decent changeup, but he doesn’t have the stuff to survive Coors Field. He posted a 4.40 ERA on the road last season, but that number ballooned to 8.40 at home. His strikeout splits were stark — 25.4% on the road and 8% at home. Contact is killer at Coors. He pitched scared and should be scared on Saturday. And in the scary situation to come, Feltner will fold. He couldn’t get out of jams last season (54% LOB% at home in 2023 and 59.3% in 2022).
Isaac Paredes does not seem like the obvious homer run prop pick in the righty-righty matchup. Let’s make it obvious. The 25-year-old hit 31 home runs in his breakout season in 2023 and 27 came against right-handed pitching (.266 ISO). The season is young, but so is he. The best is yet to come. His HardHit% has dropped a little over the last two games, but that happens with a small sample size. He’s still mashing (37.5% HardHit%) and launching (37.5% Launch Angle). We’re only amateur physicists, but those seem to be good metrics for a night at Coors Field. Also, Paredes is on a five-game hit streak.
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels
The Pick: Garrett Whitlock Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Garrett Whitlock was phenomenal in his first start of the 2024 MLB season. Who wouldn’t look great against the strikeout-prone Seattle Mariners? The Angels are just as friendly to opposing right-handed pitchers (24.5% K rate). Whitlock struck out eight Mariners, allowed one run and surrendered three hits across five innings (81 pitches). This isn’t surprising given his above-average strikeout numbers in the Minors and his excellent Spring Training. In six spring starts, Whitlock was 3-0 and struck out 22 in 21.2 innings. He posted a 2.49 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and .193 batting average against.
Not only is he dialed in but he has a new dial. Whitlock added a new pitch to his arsenal — a bullet slider. It unconventionally spins like a bullet. It has Gyroball dynamics. Regardless of the physics, batters don’t see the pitch well and it works. The pitch generated a 25% whiff rate in his opener. The Mariners only put the pitch in play once and chased it out of the zone. This is just the beginning. The inferior Angels’ offense will likely suffer a similar fate as the Mariners.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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