Saturday Night NBA DFS features a small slate this weekend. It’s not a big one, so fantasy basketball fans can easily follow every player in their lineup. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS research and make some fantasy basketball picks, as we gear up for the three-game main slate that starts at 7 p.m. ET.
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Guard
Studs
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers at Memphis Grizzlies, $8,800 — The 76ers are back. Joel Embiid ($11,100) and Maxey are healthy. Maxey returned to the lineup on Wednesday and scored 68.25 DKFP at Miami. On a small slate, a player with a 30% usage rate that plays 40 minutes is worth any price. In a matchup with the Grizzlies, that player is worth twice that. Note: Tyrese Maxey is listed as questionable Saturday, but this is normal for a player recently returning from injury.
Value
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks, $4,600 — This is always the safe NBA DFS value pick. Safety is successful on small slates. It’s silly season and lineups shuffle every night. KCP could fall off the board as value appears with updated injury reports. That does not change his potential for points. KCP plays well at home where the high altitude gives the Nuggets a competitive advantage. Teams get winded. Fast-paced and injury-thin teams like the Hawks are at an even larger disadvantage in Denver. The Nuggets’ starting guard has scored over 30 DKFP in three of the last five games and 24 DKFP in six of eight. PG Jamal Murray ($8,200) is questionable. This could mean more work for KCP.
Malachi Flynn, Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets, $4,800 — When was the last time an NBA DFS pick returned 20x value? Has it ever happened? Flynn did it Wednesday. He scored 72 DKFP. It’s unlikely that he ever scores 50 points in a game again, but 10x would be great. In truth, 6x works just fine for a three-game slate. The performance was an anomaly — Flynn was 0-for-12 from the field on Friday — but Flyyn was trending in the right direction. He scored 20 DKFP in four of the seven games leading up to the outburst. There’s a bit of a difference, but 20 DKFP is a good return for an NBA DFS value pick on any slate.
Forward
Studs
Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets, $7,600 — The Hawks continue to battle injuries. They continue to win with their limited lineup. They’ve won six of their last eight games. They won’t win this one, but they’re playing competitive basketball. Johnson is playing competitive basketball. With an elevated role, he is regularly scoring 40 to 50 DKFP, and he hit 76 DKFP on Wednesday (28 points, 11 assists, 14 rebounds and 4 steals). SG/SF Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,000) is a similar target but with multi-positional eligibility. If this game gets out of hand, C Bruno Fernando ($4,300), SG/SF Garrison “Garry Bird” Mathews ($3,400) and PG Kobe Bufkin ($3,300) could be decent point-per-dollar punts in mop-up roles. Each exceeded 5x on Thursday in a game where the Hawks trailed the Mavs by 17 halfway through the third.
Value
Christain Braun, Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks, $4,000 — Michael Malone is an underrated coach. Nikola Jokic makes Malone look good, but he is good. A key part of the Nuggets’ 2023 championship was Christian Braun. The rookie did not impact every game, but he was a deciding factor in individual games throughout each round. Malone is maximizing Braun’s minutes with the second unit. Braun is playing over 25 minutes a night and carrying a usage rate close to 20%.
Noah Clowney, Brooklyn Nets vs. Detroit Pistons, $3,700 — Brooklyn’s second-unit frontcourt has been a viable option over the last couple of weeks. The problem is that we don’t know who will go. PF/C Trendon Watford ($4,600) exceeded 7x value in five consecutive games. He played 13 minutes and scored 4.75 DKFP on Wednesday. This would not be a discussion on a normal slate, but it’s a three-gamer. Step into the fire. The Nets have been eliminated from the playoffs. It’s time to let the rookie run. Clowney’s minutes have increased over the last two weeks. The 2023 first-round pick scored 40.5 DKFP in 17 minutes on Wednesday. That’s worthy of more playing time.
Center
Studs
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks, $12,100 — It’s April. What needs to be said? What needs to be read? Will anyone read past Jokic’s name? If you haven’t moved on to the next pick, the Hawks are an up-tempo team with a weak defense and weak frontcourt.
Value
Peyton Watson, Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks, $3,600 — The Nuggets are gearing up for a championship run. The playoffs are a long grind. A deep bench is a prerequisite. Denver is cutting the leash on their 2023 first-round pick. Watson scored 20.75 DKFP in 20 minutes in a blowout win on Mar. 31. In a close game with the Spurs on Apr. 2, Watson scored 21.5 DKFP in 20 minutes.
Brandon Clarke, Memphis Grizzlies vs. Philadelphia 76ers, $5,000 — The Grizzlies welcomed Clarke back to the lineup on Mar. 27 after a month on the injury report. He was immediately forced into action. He’s playing over 20 minutes per game and his usage rate is over 20%. The Grizzlies have been routine NBA DFS value picks this season. They don’t always hit in tough matchups. Saturday’s matchup is not tough. One last item that must be mentioned is that the Grizzlies played on Friday and held out several players. Clarke was one of them. Was it rest? Will he play Saturday? It’s the Grizzlies. Keep your eyes on their injury report on Saturday. It will define the three-game slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
