Only a handful of games on the board today for MLB, including a double-header in New York with the Tigers. Let’s take a look at a couple of bets I like for today.
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
The Pick: Game Total over 9.0 runs -120
Not ideal baseball weather taking place in Washington this afternoon. It’s going to rain, temperatures in the low 50’s and winds over 10 mph. This type of environment doesn’t scream offensive outburst to me. The Pirates will also be starting Martin Perez, which isn’t a great matchup for the Nationals. Last season against lefties, this roster had just a .324 wOBA with a 102 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. For the Nationals, they’ll be starting Josiah Gray, who is always someone I’m worried about taking the under with. This is why I’m taking the game and not the F5 under. Gray was wrecked in his first start of the year, allowing seven runs on eight hits through just four innings of work. The Reds have a very good offense so this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, but it’s still something to consider. I’m hoping with the bad weather, this is more of a pitching matchup than an offensive outburst.
I’d expect this total to drop at some point to 8.5 runs, so I would grab this sooner rather than later if you’re intersted in taking it.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins
The Pick: Paul Goldschmidt over 1.5 H/R/RBI -120
I’m backing Goldy going up against the lefty Ryan Weathers. Weathers was crushed by right-handed bats last season to the tune of a .395 wOBA a 5.96 FIP, only a 5.8 K/9 and a 1.6 HR/9. The Pirates tagged him for three runs on seven hits in his first start of the season and I’d expect more of the same here today. When you’re looking for props that involve Goldy, you want to be targeting him against lefties. Last season he had a .352 wOBA with a 124 wRC+. Those numbers were even better at home with a .390 wOBA and a 149 wRC+.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
