We have a five-game slate tonight. Kawhi Leonard, Dereck Lively II and Malik Monk are out. Joel Embiid ($11,000), Tyrese Maxey ($8,500), Jamal Murray ($8,300) and Jonathan Kuminga ($6,600) are questionable. Keep track of all the pertinent injury updates at DK Live.
As for back-to-backs, ATL played last night. DAL, GSW, HOU, LAC, MIA, NYK and SAC play tomorrow.
DraftKings Sportsbook has no game with a total of at least 240. There is no game with a total below 210. There is one double-digit favorite – DAL -12 over ATL. There is no game within two points. There are two home dogs – HOU and LAC. Log into DK Sportsbook for the updates.
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Guard
Stud
Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks ($12,500) – Doncic is the most expensive player on the slate, but if paying up, it’s straight cash for the Louis Vuitton of fantasy hoops. He is averaging a robust 1.71 DKFP per minute, is a threat to mess around on any given night and has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. Over the last 17 games, he’s gone for at least 60 DKFP in 15 with three over 80. In the two games he missed, Doncic put up 56.25 and 35.75 DKFP in a game that he played fewer than 30 minutes. He’s playing close to 40 minutes a night and garnering a massive usage rate in the 35 to 40 percent range. Obviously, it comes down to roster construction, but I was able to make some lineups that I didn’t feel icky about. Let us all sing HalleLuka!
Other Options – Stephen Curry ($8,600), Paul George ($8,400), James Harden ($8,200), Fred VanVleet ($7,800), Terry Rozier ($6,900), Amen Thompson ($6,600), Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,500)
Value
Russell Westbrook, Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets ($4,800) – Westbrook won’t start and likely won’t sniff 30 minutes. That said, with Kawhi out, his playing time and dial on the microwave will be turned heavily to the right. On Tuesday with Kawhi out, Westbrook played 24 minutes and garnered a massive usage rate of 43.2 percent. He attempted 13 shots and finished with 20 points, two rebounds and two assists.
Other Options – Miles McBride ($5,900), Norman Powell ($5,000), Brandin Podziemski ($4,500), Cameron Payne ($4,500) if Maxey is out, Davion Mitchell ($3,900)
Forward
Stud
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets ($6,400) – Jalen Johnson ($6,900) is popping from the projection systems, and for good reason, as he’s coming off a 76-DKFP performance on Wednesday. The range of outcomes is fairly wide, though. Over the last nine games, he put up 44.75, 54.5, 40.25 and 50.25 in four of those games but also went for 22, 20, 19.25 and 23.75. Dallas has been fourth in defensive rating over the last 10 games and has neutralized the FPPM to power forwards by 10.7 percent. PJ Washington ($5,300) matches up well with him.
Green has a wider range of outcomes because he could get kicked out at any moment. In addition, the likely outcome is lower than Johnson’s, but I think Green can match or even exceed his production tonight. He did go for 59 DKFP two games ago, so there is a slight chance of accessing a ceiling game. The main thing here, though, is that the roster percentage will likely be much lower.
Other Options – Jalen Johnson ($6,900), Amen Thompson ($6,600), Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,500), Keegan Murray ($6,100)
Value
Trey Lyles, Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks ($3,600) – Lyles missed nine games due to knee soreness, but he’s back, playing 19 and 26 minutes off the bench. He put up 23 and 32.5 DKFP while garnering a usage rate of 25.3 and 16.5 percent. On the season, he’s averaged 0.82 DKFP per minute and his play off the bench has been important since the Kings no longer have Malik Monk to be the microwave off the bench.
Other Options – PJ Washington ($5,300), Norman Powell ($5,000), Haywood Highsmith ($4,000)
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers ($11,900) – Even though Jokic hasn’t been the Breaker of Fantasy like in the past, he is still pretty damn good and can never be counted out for putting up the most raw points on the slate. Like Doncic, he’s a threat to mess around on any given night and put up 94.25 DKFP 11 games ago. On Tuesday, he went for 77 DKFP but he has more games below 50 DKFP than Doncic, which is why I sing HalleLuka. That said, the projected ownership is minuscule and is something I will be pondering throughout the day.
Other Options – Domantas Sabonis ($10,200), Bam Adebayo ($8,500), Clint Capela ($6,500), Draymond Green ($6,400)
Value
Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets ($5,800) – Zubac averages 1.04 DKFP per minute, but sometimes playing time is an issue. He should get the run in this one, as he will need to match up with Jokic. In three prior meetings against Denver this season, Zubac received 27, 32 and 27 minutes, putting up 31.75, 45 and 27.25 DKFP. The recent form for Zubac has been good as well, playing 35, 33 and 29 minutes while contributing 29.75, 47 and 33.75 DKFP.
Other Options – Daniel Gafford ($5,700), PJ Washington ($5,300), Trey Lyles ($3,600)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
