There’s a glut of afternoon baseball today, but as someone who doesn’t like to get up before 10:00 a.m. ET if I don’t have to, we’ll be focusing on the night slate for this betting article. Am I lazy? Yes. Am I 3-1 (+1.9u) on article plays to start the season? Also yes.
Let’s dive in to all the action on the diamond.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros
Under 9 (-120)
In theory, I understand why this matchup would own the night’s highest total on the DraftKings Sportsbook, yet I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t expecting a slightly lower number. While both these lineups have the capability of producing runs in bunches, that really hasn’t been the case so far in 2024. For the Astros, it’s definitely been some hard luck. Through six games Houston sports the league’s best wRC+ (136), yet it’s only scored 22 times. That will surely turn around in a larger sample. However, my concerns with Toronto’s lineup are far more legitimate. After a disappointing 2023, the Jays added little in the offseason, and are currently slashing .196/.285/.333 with an underwhelming .138 ISO and 86 wRC+. Heck, on Tuesday, Toronto was one out away from being shutout in back-to-back games — with the first shutout having doubled as a no-hitter.
This game also features a pair of starters with a huge amount of upside. Cristian Javier looked great in his opening outing of the season last Friday, tossing six scoreless innings with six strikeouts against the Yankees. His velocity was still down from where it sat in his breakout 2022 campaign, yet Javier’s 27.8% change-up usage was intriguing. The RHP has been primarily a two-pitch pitcher throughout his career and adding a third offering would obviously help diversify his arsenal. This appears to be a solid matchup for Javier from a handedness perspective, as well. For his career, it’s been LHBs that give Javier issues, as he’s held RHBs to a paltry .250 wOBA. All of the Jays’ best hitters are right-handed.
Then there’s Chris Bassitt. A veteran RHP that had 21 quality starts in 2023, trailing only Gerrit Cole and Logan Webb for the most in baseball. Nothing about Bassitt is sexy, but he tends to get the job done — or at least keep the game manageable. If Bassitt can hold Houston to three or four runs, I don’t think we come close to going over this total.
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Glasnow’s strikeout totals have been underwhelming so far in 2024, yet I’m not foolish enough to believe that that will continue for long. To wit, a 15.8% swinging strike rate tells me more than his 19.0% strikeout rate ever could. However, I do still have some concerns about Glasnow’s leash. Despite this being the right-hander’s third start of the regular season, Glasnow’s only thrown 77 and 81 pitches, respectively, across his first two outings. Whether you want to attribute that to the oddity of the Seoul Series or the Dodgers being cautious with their oft-injured ace is up to you, yet I don’t think we’re suddenly going to see Glasnow out here throwing 100 pitches on Wednesday.
There’s also a matchup element to this prop. The Giants overhauled their lineup this offseason and, through a week of action, the early returns have been promising — particularly when it comes to contact. Say what you will about small samples, but San Francisco enters play on Wednesday with the league’s sixth-highest contact rate (78.2%) and its sixth-lowest swinging strike rate (9.7%). That’s translated into a 21.7% strikeout rate that sits comfortably in the lower-half of baseball.
Could Glasnow’s elite stuff simply overmatch the Giants? Of course. But at plus-money, I think this is a prop worth exploring.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
