It’s been another insane March of college hoops, but we’ve shaved the field down to four teams that are making the trip to Arizona. While we have some pretty big spreads on the games, I don’t think these matchups lack any excitement. Here’s how I’m betting Saturday night’s Final Four contests on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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NC State vs. Purdue
NCST +9.5 (-110) — 2-units
It’s been a truly magical run for the Wolfpack. This team had no chance at making the NCAA Tournament, and has since gone on to win nine elimination games in 19 days. NC State was priced as an underdog in seven of those games, obviously going 7-0 SU/ATS, but also covering by 16.8 points per game.
I think the Wolfpack are a fascinating team to handicap, as they are a completely different team now than they have been at any stage of the regular season. While NC State has slayed some giants on their run, Purdue also presents the tallest task yet — quite literally in Zach Edey. Sure, DJ Burns is an awesome story and incredibly fun to watch, but he’ll be giving up a lot of height in this matchup. The Boilermakers also have very solid guard play, highlighted by terrific 3-point shooting (although we didn’t see it against Tennessee).
I think the better team ultimately winds up winning this game, but the Pack should be able to hang around and keep this within single digits. NC State has all the pieces you need in this tournament, and they are playing with extreme confidence. The Wolfpack have terrific guard play, perimeter shooting to go along with multiple bigs to give fouls on Edey.
Purdue escapes, but in a battle.
Alabama vs. Connecticut
UConn -11.5 (-115) — 2-units
UConn Team Total OVER 86.5 (-110) — 1-unit
I have a ton of UConn futures personally, and put out a public play for 1-unit on the Huskies to win it all at +600. But this team is good enough that I also committed to riding them on a game-by-game basis, which you know by now has continued to cash each game. I won’t be backing down in the Final Four, even laying double-digits.
In order to pull away from Clemson, Alabama had to shoot over 44% from downtown, while a terrific shooting Clemson team went a pathetic 50% from the free throw line (still not bitter about that at all). ‘Bama was also able to use its size and athleticism to out-rebound the Tigers 40-28. The Crimson Tide are about to take on a completely different animal.
Illinois is a pretty similar comparison to Alabama, ranking among the top offenses in the country, but not playing much defense. How’d that go for the Illini last weekend? I’m not projecting a 30-0 run in this game, but the Huskies will do a much better job of defending the 3-point line than any opponent ‘Bama has seen, and will also have the rebounding advantage. There’s also the issue of the Tide’s lack of a defense, that should put UConn in position to really hang a big number here. The Huskies haven’t even been shooting well from deep in the tournament, so if they get hot at all from beyond the arc … lookout.
Look for UConn to continue to win with margin, and likely put a large number on the scoreboard.
Exat Outcome Future
UConn to beat Purdue (-115) — 1-unit
This goes a little big against my NC State wager, but it could be seen as a big of a hedge or also a middle — let’s hope Purdue wins by single digits. Assuming the two big favorites advance, I know I’ll be on the Huskies in the National Title game, so this is just an attempt at a better price. More Huskies action always seems like a good idea to me.
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
