Entering the last day of March Madness where we won’t be at the game (we booked our hotel in Glendale yesterday), we are now 14-7 making these picks each day of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. That does mean we won’t end with a losing record, but we’d also like to avoid giving back all this virtual profit.
There’s two more spots in Arizona to be decided today, and we take a look at both games. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
2024 March Madness picks: Sunday, March 31
Purdue -3 vs. Tennessee
We got this for real dollars at -2.5 at open, and though we don’t totally love it, it’s tough to find a case against the Boilermakers right now. It would appear to be a spot where Zach Edey is going to get every call, and that’s a huge advantage in a game with two physical teams. But the whistle, as it is in all Edey games, will be a huge factor here. There were just 26 team fouls called in the Gonzaga-Purdue game. Expect more today, but hopefully not double that number.
But we’re on Purdue not just because of the National Player of the Year, but also because Braden Smith appears to have this offense cooking. He’s got 31 assists and just five turnovers in the tournament, and he’s getting the offense efficient enough to make things tough on Dalton Knecht, who will need to be a monster today if the Vols have any chance of keeping things close.
NC State +7 vs. Duke
When Duke won at NC State 79-64 on March 4: DJ Burns had 27 points, five rebounds, four assists.
When NC State won 74-69 vs. Duke at the ACC Tournament on March 14: Burns had 10 points, three rebounds, four assists. The Blue Devils made someone else beat them, and that’s what Mohamed Diarra did (14 points, 16 boards in the win).
In the NCAA’s, Diarra has averaged 13 points and 13.3 rebounds per game. He’s been the difference during this miraculous eight-game winning streak that has kept the Wolfpack’s season alive. And he should be a huge problem again today for Jon Scheyer and company.
The Blue Devils beat Vermont and James Madison the first weekend. They probably needed the Big 12 Player of the Year Jamal Shead to twist his ankle to get past No. 1 seed Houston. That’s not exactly a murderers row to get 40 minutes from the Final Four.
Duke might get through, but seven is too many here.
Braden Smith over 6.5 assists vs. Tennessee
The Vols are going to throw plenty of bodies at Edey on the block, but that means UT will do whatever it takes to patrol the middle of the floor. So when there’s a no entrance sign in the key, or for spots where the ball reversal comes, it will be Smith putting shooters like Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer in position to be gunning from deep.
He’ll get some shots of his own as well, but finding seven dimes today won’t be much of a challenge in a game that might have a bit more pace than anticipated.
