It’s Opening Weekend for Major League Baseball. The season starts a new. There are many questions and unknowns. Teams, fans and sports books are still getting a read on the 2024 MLB season. This presents opportunities. I’ll give some bets that I like for today and hopefully start the season off on the right foot.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
The Pick: Same Game Parlay Reds -1.5 and Over 9.5 (+300)
Patrick Corbin stinks. The Nationals stink. Washington projects to lose close to 100 games. The Reds could make the playoffs. This is the season’s second game, and the Nats are trotting out Patrick Corbin. Over the last four seasons, Corbins xFIP has been north of four. His HR/9 has been 2.0, 1.6 and 1.7. Last season his strikeout rate dropped to 6.2. This is Great American “Small” Park. Pitching to contact is dangerous. Opening weekend can be cold in Cincinnati. That tends to suppress runs. That’s not the case this weekend. Corbin had his worst Spring Training of his career (5.51 ERA in 16.1 innings). The Reds will score in bunches and win with ease just like their 8-2 Opening Day win.
Hunter Green is a phenom. The fireballer piles up strikeouts, but he’s susceptible to the long ball. It doesn’t even have to be a long ball in Cincinnati. A pop fly wall scraper can find its way out. Greene projects to surrender his fair share of bombs (1.8 HR/9). His spring training was mixed. He struck out 15 in 13.1 innings but allowed three homers and 13 hits. The Reds will win but both teams will put runs on the board.
Oakland Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Pick: Athletics Money Line by (+120)
The Guardians can’t hit lefties. Their 83 wRC+ against left-handed pitching in 2023 was the second-worst in baseball. They did little to correct the problem in the offseason. Cleveland projects to be a sub .500 team. This is not a tough matchup for J.P. Sears. It might be quick to get behind Sears. In his first full season, he went 5-14 in 172.1 innings with a 5.10 xFIP (4.54 ERA). Home runs killed him last season. The Guardians don’t have the bats to take advantage of his weakness. Sears had a good spring. He posted a 2.70 ERA and struck out 18 batters in 16.2 innings. His home runs allowed were down (2). Opposing batters hit .167 against him, and he recorded a 0.84 WHIP. Sure, it’s Spring Training, but his batting average against was the fifth-best in the MLB this spring and his WHIP ranked sixth.
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pick: Marlins Money Line v (-112)
The Pirates’ best bats are lefties. It’s not a surprise that they struggled with left-handed pitchers. Their 89 wRC+ vs. LHP was one of the worst in the league. They posted a .137 ISO and a 24.1% K-rate. That does not bode well in Miami. Even if they are fortunate enough to make contact, the ball is staying in the park.
Ryan Weathers is a relatively unfamiliar face. That’s often the case with Marlins. That won’t be the case for long. Weathers has a 5.88 ERA in his first 156 innings as a big leaguer. That’s not encouraging but it’s par for the course for young pitchers. This is the turning point. In the spring, he struck out 21 in 18 innings, walked four batters and maintained a 3.00 ERA. Injuries earned him a spot in the Marlins’ rotation, but he also did his part. The Padres gave up on Weathers, but the Marlins were willing to take on the reclamation project. After some offseason adjustments, he is primed to have a breakout.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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