The Sweet 16 of the 2024 NCAA Women’s Tournament will continue this evening with action out of Portland Regional 3. These Regional semifinal matchups will take place at the Moda Center in Portland, OR, and both games will air on ESPN. The winners will advance to face each other in the Elite Eight on Monday.
Below, we’ll offer our analysis and picks for both games. All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 1 USC, 5:30 p.m. ET
Point spread: USC -3
Total: 134.5
Moneyline: USC -155, UConn +130
Baylor (26-7) is back in the Elite Eight for the first time in 2021 and was able to do so by blowing out No. 12 Vanderbilt in round one before edging No. 4 Virginia Tech in a 75-72 victory in round two. That matchup against the Hokies was tight all he way until the very end of the contest and the Bears were able to survive when Jada Walker drained a couple of clutch free throws with six seconds left. She led the team with 28 points in that game and you should keep an eye out for her as well as the three-point shooting prowess of Bella Fontleroy and Sarah Andrews.
USC (28-5) cruised through its first two games of the NCAA Tournament last weekend, demolishing both No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and No. 8 Kansas. The Trojans won both of their games on the strength of their defense as they held both opponents to under 36% shooting and scored a combined 46 points off turnovers. JuJu Watkins averaged 25.5 points through those two victories and will once again be the player to watch in this showdown. Meanwhile, center Rayah Marshall has averaged a double-double all season long and she is someone to keep an eye out for in the paint.
Pick: Baylor +3
This has the potential to be one of the funnest games of the entire weekend and I expect it to be tight until the very end. Baylor has held opponents to just 26.7% shooting from three and that should come in handy against a USC team shooting 36% from downtown. Combine these with an excellent rebounding rate and i think the Bears can cover as a slight underdog in this contest.
No. 7 Duke vs. No. 3 UConn, 8 p.m. ET
Point spread: UConn -8.5
Total: 126.5
Moneyline: UConn -440, Duke +340
Duke (22-11) is in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2013 and got here by knocking off No. 10 Richmond before stunning No. 2 Ohio State in a 75-63 victory last Sunday. Trailing by 10 after the first quarter, the Blue Devils were able to storm ahead of the Buckeyes by holding them to just 40.7% shooting for the game and out rebounding them 38-20. Reigan Richardson has carried them with an average of 26.5 points through the two tournament games and they’ll need more production out of her if they want to pull another upeset.
UConn (31-5) is back in the Sweet 16 after an ultra-rare absence last season, getting here by dominating No. 14 Jackson State in round one before clipping No. 6 Syracuse in round two. The Huskies had total control of both contests as they held both opponents to under 35% shooting in those games. Paige Bueckers has arguably been the MVP of the entire tournament so far with an average of 30 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists through two games. We’ll see if she can continue her dominance against the Blue Devils.
Pick: Duke +8.5
Defense will be the name of the game in this one as both teams held opponents to under 58 points per game and less than 37% shooting. While Duke is a heavy underdog, one area it can take advantage of is UConn’s carelessness at times as the Huskies have committed 32 turnovers through two games. While I don’t think they’ll pull out the outright upset, I do think the Blue Devils can put a lot of pressure on the Huskies and cover here.