Update: As expected, Edwards and Gobert are both in for the Timberwolves. Minnesota is a 5-point underdog and I’m still going there as the ATS pick. The total is set at 211.5 and I like the over, even with both teams being solid defensively.
Update: Murray has been ruled out, and the Nuggets are now 5.5-point favorites. I’ll wait on the final status for Edwards and Gobert before making a pick but the Timberwolves are still likely to be the ATS play.
First place in the Western Conference is on the line Friday evening when the Minnesota Timberwolves (50-22) battle the Denver Nuggets (51-22). The Timberwolves have won three in a row, while the Nuggets come into this game off a loss to the Suns Wednesday. This is the third meeting between these teams, with Minnesota and Denver splitting the first two games. There will be a fourth contest later in the season.
Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert are both listed as questionable for the Timberwolves, but both are expected to play. Nikola Jokic is probable for Denver, while Jamal Murray remains questionable. The point guard has missed the last three games with a knee injury.
The Nuggets are 7-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total sitting at 212.5. Denver is -278 on the moneyline while Minnesota is +225.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Timberwolves +7
This line should close once Edwards and Gobert are officially listed as available, especially if Murray is ruled out for a fourth straight game. The Timberwolves are 11-7 ATS as an underdog this season, and covered this line both previous meetings against the Nuggets. Denver has struggled of late as a favorite, failing to cover in four of its last six games with that distinction. Even though the Timberwolves have struggled on the road, they are in form at the moment and should be able to at least keep this game close. Take Minnesota to cover.
Over/Under: Over 212.5
Minnesota is 21-16 to the over as the road team, mostly because the team’s defense doesn’t perform as well away from home. Nuggets home unders have been a strong play this season, with Denver going 16-20 to the over in the Mile High City. However, this line is too low for me to feel good about taking the under. The most recent matchup between these teams 10 days ago went over this line by a decent margin, so I’ll take the over to hit again tonight.