We got off on the right foot yesterday, sweeping the board with our three plays and the SGP. Let’s see if we can keep it rolling for Friday’s condensed schedule of games.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Diamondbacks run line -1.5 -110
Now, to be fair, betting a home favorite on the run line can put yourself in a corner. The may not bat in the bottom of the ninth and if they’re only up by one, you lose an opportunity to score another run. That said, this Rockies team has already shown they’re ATROCIOUS. They gave up 16 runs last, including a 14 run third inning! Sure, they Rockies aren’t going to give up 16 runs every night (..right?) but this is another spot to back the D-Backs.
The Rockies will be pitching their BIG offseason acquisition in Cal Quantrill. Ya know, the guy who had a 5.25 ERA, a 5.85 xERA, a 5.2 K/9 and a 3.1 BB/9 through 99.2 innings with Cleveland last year. Quantrill also really struggled against lefties, posting a .369 wOBA with a 5.28 FIP and a massive 6.2 BB/9. The D-Backs did a solid job of adding some lefty pop to their lineup, which now includes Joc Pederson. He’ll join Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Alek Thomas to hit from the left side. Last season, the D-Backs were the second-best team on the run line, ending with a 99-80 record. I’m more than comfortable backing them tonight.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Oakland Athletics
The Pick: Game Total over 7.5 runs -112
We don’t have big offenses going against each other when it comes to the Guardians and Athletics, but I do like the over tonight. The A’s were shut out last night but Shane Bieber was on a different level. He struck out 11 through six shutout innings while generating a ridiculous 21.7% swing-and-miss rate. Logan Allen, at least thus far, is striking out less than a batter per inning at the major league level. He also was a bit lucky on the mound, as his 3.81 ERA was accompanied by a 4.43 xERA. While the A’s have healthy mix of bats in their lineup, righties tagged Allen for a .334 wOBA with a 4.20 FIP and 14 of the 16 home runs he allowed.
For the A’s, they have Ross Stripling, who is coming off a disaster season for the Giants. His bloated 5.36 ERA was on track with his 5.59 xERA through 89 innings. Both sides of the plate hit him hard last year and the Guardians, like the A’s, are very well mixed from both sides of the plate. I don’t like either of these pitchers going deep in this game, opening up to the bullpens. While Cleveland has the advantage, it’s more of when they’re ahead that it becomes a strength.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: Brandon Lowe over 1.5 H/R/RBI
I am always looking to target left-handed bats against Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt. Despite a good overall year for Bassitt, he had a .357 wOBA, a 5.42 FIP and 21 of his 28 home runs allowed to southpaws. Lowe hits near the top of the Rays’ lineup, giving him ample opportunity to hit the over on his number, which is currently sitting at +105. He’s not a consistent hitter by any means but when he does, he usually has some power. Last season, Lowe had .238 ISO against right-handed pitching as well as a .349 wOBA and a 128 wRC+.
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