After last night’s two-game tease, we have a robust 10-game slate for Friday. The HOU/UTA and DAL/SAC games are off the main slate. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,300) is doubtful. Anthony Davis ($10,400), LeBron James ($10,300), Jamal Murray ($8,500), Donovan Mitchell ($9,100), Anthony Edwards ($9,600), Rudy Gobert ($7,600), Cade Cunningham ($8,100), Jaden Ivey ($6,300), Deandre Ayton ($8,300) and Jonathan Kuminga ($6,600) are all questionable. Keep track of all the pertinent injury updates at DK Live. A ton of value could open up tonight, so stay vigilant on the starting lineups and inactives.
As for back-to-backs, no teams played last night. No teams play tomorrow.
DraftKings Sportsbook has one game with a total of at least 240 – LAL/IND (243.5). There is one game with a total below 210 – POR/MIA (209.5). There are two double-digit favorites – GSW -13 over CHA and MIA -14 over POR. There are two game within two points – PHO -2 over OKC and LAC -1 over ORL. There are five home dogs – CHA, ORL, BKN, SAS and OKC. Log into DK Sportsbook for the updates.
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Guard
Stud
Josh Giddey, Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns ($6,300) – Over the last three games, Giddey has made us fantasy nerds smile because he’s put up 43.75, 43.25 and 49.25 DKFP. The minutes have increased every game, from 29 to 31 to 32. The last game was an overtime game, so adjust the abacus. The important things here at that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed the last game and is doubtful for tonight. In addition, Giddey garnered a massive 37.4 percent usage rate. He is too cheap for the expected playing time and usage. If Shai surprisingly suits up, then abort the Giddey mission, go cry in the corner, then pivot by jumping into the Poole.
Other Options – Austin Reaves ($7,600) if LeBron is out, D’Angelo Russell ($7,500) if LeBron is out, Jordan Poole ($6,800), Brandon Miller ($6,400), Dennis Schroder ($6,200)
Value
Isaiah Joe, Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns ($3,700) – Joe played 34 minutes last game, which went to overtime. He’s been the microwave scorer/offensive spacer for the Thunder all season, but he was usually playing in the teens. With Shai out, he received elevated playing time, and the same dynamic should play out tonight with Shai unlikely to play.
Other Options – Miles McBride ($5,800), Mike Conley ($5,500), Vasilije Micic ($5,200), Marcus Sasser ($4,900) if Cade is out, Evan Fournier ($3,800) if he starts, Rayan Rupert ($3,400)
Forward
Stud
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns ($7,400) – I guess that Shai guy is kind of important, huh? He is the Alpha and Omega of this Thunder squad, garnering a usage rate of 33.3 percent on the season. Einstein said that, “energy cannot be created or destroyed; it can only be changed from one for to another.” The same can be said for usage rate. It doesn’t simply disappear. It filters and permeates to others. In this case, Giddey and Williams soaked up most of Shai’s usage last game, and the same thing will likely happen tonight. The usage rate for Williams was 30.3 percent last game and he put up 50.75 DKFP in an overtime game.
Other Options – LeBron James ($10,300), DeMar DeRozan ($8,400), Kyle Kuzma ($8,300), Deni Avdija ($7,300), Brandon Miller ($6,400), Jeremy Sochan ($6,200)
Value
Trendon Watford, Brooklyn Nets vs. Chicago Bulls ($3,100) – Due to Cameron Johnson being out with an injury, Watford played significant minutes the last two games, receiving 21 and 20. He put up 26.75 and 23.75 DKFP. Johnson is out again Friday, so Watford should see around 20 minutes again. On the season, he is averaging a healthy 1.04 DKFP per minute.
Other Options – Rui Hachimura ($5,900) if LeBron or AD are out, Kyle Anderson ($5,100), Andrew Wiggins ($5,000), Chimezie Metu ($4,600), Jonathan Isaac ($4,000), Aleksej Pokusevski ($3,900), Evan Fournier ($3,800) if he starts, Isaiah Joe ($3,700)
Center
Stud
Kyle Kuzma, Washington Wizards vs. Detroit Pistons ($8,300) – If Anthony Davis is playing, then I’m going with him. Since there is some doubt for his availability, I’ll go with Kuzma. While the defensive stats aren’t there on a consistent basis, Kuzma will chip in some steals and blocks from time to time. He has always been good on the glass and has made strides in playmaking, but where he makes his hay is in scoring. Over the last three games, he’s attempted 18, 18 and 22 shots while garnering a usage rate of 25, 28 and 33 percent. That translated to 49.5, 32.75 and 49 DKFP. Detroit has been playing at the 10th-fastest pace over the last 10 games and has boosted the FPPM to power forwards by 13.4 percent. Kuzma is priced near his ceiling but I think he has a chance to get close to 60 DKFP if things break right.
Other Options – Anthony Davis ($10,400), Bam Adebayo ($8,400), Myles Turner ($6,400)
Value
Marvin Bagley, Washington Wizards vs. Detroit Pistons ($4,800) – There was a stretch when Bagley started 10 straight games for Washington and averaged 26.2 minutes, 11.9 points, 8.7 rebounds and 1.1 blocks. Then he suffered an injury and missed the next nine games. Since returning, he’s received 16, 17 and 25 minutes, backing up Richaun Holmes. But Holmes is now out Friday, which means Bagley should see close to 30 minutes. On the season, he’s averaging a respectable 1.16 DKFP per minute.
Other Options – Trayce Jackson-Davis ($5,500), Jaxson Hayes ($4,700) if AD is out, Chimezie Metu ($4,600), Jonathan Isaac ($4,000), Aleksej Pokusevski ($3,900), Trendon Watford ($3,100)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
