On Thursday, the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 battle between the Iowa State Cyclones and Illinois Fighting Illini features a strength-on-strength matchup between a dominant Illinois offense and a dominant Iowa State defense.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa State Cyclones (-1.5, 146)
Illinois leads the nation in points scored on a per-possession basis in road games while Iowa State ranks second in points allowed on a per-possession basis. However, the Cyclones have some balance on their side.
Iowa State ranks 49th in points scored on a per-possession basis thanks in large part to having the second-best turnover differential in the country, ranking 69th in fewest turnovers committed per possession while generating the second-most turnovers per possession of any team on defense.
The turnovers help set up the Cyclones’ offense by providing fast break opportunities and face a Fighting Illini team that will not take them outside of their comfort zone as Illinois forces a turnover on just 11% of its defensive possessions on the road, the lowest percentage of all 362 Division I teams.
The biggest weak point in the defense of the Cyclones is also where the Fighting Illini struggle the most — the 3-point line. Illinois ranks 104th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage while Iowa State ranks 87th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage on the road at 32.7%.
With Illinois ranked 252nd in opponent road 3-point shooting percentage and 261st in points allowed per possession in road games, in this battle of offense versus defense, it will be Iowa State and its defense that wins this battle.
The Play: Iowa State -1.5
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