We enter the regional semifinal round of March Madness tonight, and so far we are 8-4 in this space while making three picks per day of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
And despite wanting to pile it on UConn even earlier this week to get a better number, we waited in service to you, our dear reader.
Today and tomorrow are two of the best college basketball days of the year because unlike the unending buffet of the first weekend, you can sit and focus on all four games on the slate without being overwhelmed. Let’s find some angles to win here, and all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
2024 March Madness picks: Thursday, March 28
UConn -6.5 1H vs. San Diego State
Sometimes we can overthink gambling, and sometimes it’s wise to do the obvious thing.
San Diego State is flying across the country after a travel disaster leaving Spokane after the Round of 32. They are a defensive team that uses their physicality and athleticism to create a shutdown identity. They also have a fantastic star in MWC Player of the Year Jaedon LeDee.
And they’re running into a buzzsaw in Boston tonight.
The Huskies have covered the first half in eight of their last nine. They are at home, healthy, and playing some of their best basketball of the season at the right time. They are the defending national champions, and their No. 2 offense and No. 8 defense by KenPom should smother SDSU in front of a raucous TD Garden. Don’t overthink this one.
Clemson +7 vs. Arizona
You can credibly argue Clemson has been one of the best four teams in the NCAA Tournament so far, while the Wildcats have been exposed on several occasions in March. USC got them in the regular season finale, while they blew a 19-point second half lead to Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament once the Ducks went to a zone.
Clemson smoked a New Mexico team that entered March Madness as one of the hottest teams in the country, then held off a game Baylor team with tons of offensive weapons but a marginal defense. And that’s what they’re facing tonight in Los Angeles.
The ‘Cats have possibly the best traveling fan base in the American Southwest, and Crypto.com Arena will sound like a home game in Tucson. But the up-and-down season of Clemson has been ticking up at the right time, and so has the play of Chase Hunter (20.5 ppg on 50% shooting in NCAA Tournament).
Tristen Newton Under 6.5 rebounds
You’re going to have to trust that we got to this number before the odds spiked to -130, and this is not a knock on one of the best point guards in America and a reigning national champion.
But Newton has only averaged 3.6 rebounds in his last three games anyway, and that’s before he was facing a team that doesn’t take too many three-pointers in San Diego State. There won’t be a lot of long boards to corral in a game that will mostly be played at the rim when SDSU has the ball.
Expect plenty of physicality in the paint, but not a lot of loose balls leaving it.
