Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers
Clippers -5.5 -108
The Clippers’ recent back-to-back didn’t go all that well. Both the Pacers and 76ers knocked them off by 17-plus points. But, this now puts the Clippers in a spot which Western Conference teams have thrived.
Road Western Conference favorites coming off a loss are 26-11 against the spread when facing an Eastern Conference home underdog. The 76ers are also coming off a loss, which also plays into the Clippers’ hand. East home dogs coming off a loss are 21-34-2 ATS when facing a West road favorite.
Both settings are very specific, so neither team has a large sample size in these scenarios (LAC 2-1 ATS, PHI 0-2-1 ATS). That said, this is the seventh time the 76ers are playing as a home dog following a loss this season. In the previous six instances, Philadelphia has gone 1-4-1 ATS. As for the Clippers, they’re a less definitive 4-3 ATS when playing as a road favorite after a loss — but that’s still a success rate over 57%.
As for the market’s approach, the Clippers are the public play, receiving 64% of the spread bets. However, they also appear to be the sharps’ preferred option, garnering 85% of the handle.
New York Knicks at Toronto Raptors
Josh Hart under 5.5 assists +105
Backing Hart to log a triple-double vs. Toronto is a popular play at +900. He’s logged six over since January 30, so it’s worth consideration on any given night. But between points, rebounds and assists, it’s clear which leg is most likely to hold him back from logging a triple-double on any given night.
During this 24-game stretch in which he’s logged six triple-doubles, Hart has averaged 12.1 points per game, 11.1 rebounds and 5.7 assists. On top of that low assists per game average — despite 1/4 of the games in this stretch resulting in at least 10 assists — there’s been a trend in games following a Hart triple-double. In the five games that have followed a Hart triple-double (Wednesday will be the sixth), the forward has logged more than five assists just once. The under on Hart’s assists prop is also 4-1 in those games.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
