We are so back, baby. While we got a quick, nocturnal taste of regular season baseball last week in Korea, Thursday is the real deal. Opening Day. 15 games. 30 teams. One big smile from yours truly.
DraftKings’ featured MLB slate gets going with the 4:10 p.m. ET wave. Let’s get an early start and dive into everything you’ll need to know.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $500K Opening Day Special [$100K to 1st]
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PITCHER
Stud
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, $9,100 – Everyone and their aunt has Skubal as a “dark horse” AL Cy Young candidate, which is silly because the left-hander is currently +900 to win the award on the DK Sportsbook. It’s not hard to see why, either. Skubal threw only 80.1 innings in 2023, but finished with a 2.30 xERA and a 2.00 FIP thanks to an insane 7.29 K/BB and 32.9 strikeout rate. Then he started consistently touching 100 mph in Spring Training. The worry for a futures bet? Volume. Skubal’s never reached the 150-inning plateau. However, that’s not our concern in DFS. He’s elite and the White Sox project to have one of baseball’s worst lineups. This is an easy choice.
Value
Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $7,300 – Not that you need to dice up Eflin’s 2023 campaign to make it digestible, but the splits are certainly in his favor on Thursday. Split no. 1: His numbers at Tropicana Field. Eflin posted a 29.0% strikeout rate with 2.78 FIP at home last season. Split no. 2: His numbers against RHBs. Eflin struck out 29.4% of the right-handed batters he faced in his 31 starts compared to 23.3% of the LHBs. The Rays open 2024 in Tampa. They’ll square off with the Jays, who happen to possess an extremely top-heavy, right-handed lineup. This should be a perfect matchup for Eflin to exploit his pitch mix and skill set.
INFIELD
Stud
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $5,900 – Last season was not kind to Miles Mikolas ($5,800), who pitched to a 5.44 xERA across 201.1 innings. As per usual, most of the damage was done by left-handed opponents. In fact, LHBs combined to hit .285 off the veteran, with Mikolas surrendering an inflated 1.41 home runs per nine within the split. I have my doubts that 2024 goes much better, especially with the 35-year-old having to start things up against the mighty Dodgers. Freeman, one of the best lefties in the world, posted a 163 wRC+ last season. He’s basically always viable, if you can afford him.
Stud
Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals, $5,600 – De La Cruz is obviously a high-risk type of asset, but the rewards? Also incredibly high. Still, there’s a time and a place to use De La Cruz and that is most definitely when the Reds are facing a RHP. Despite his switch-hitting prowess, De La Cruz posted a 107 wRC+ as a lefty, yet just a 28 wRC+ against southpaws. The right-handed pitcher in question on Thursday is Josiah Gray ($6,000). For his career, Gray’s conceded an eye-popping 2.32 home runs per nine to left-handed opponents. That figure won’t play well at Great American Ball Park.
Value
Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $4,000 – Lowe didn’t quite stay healthy last season, but he was available enough to validate his massive 2021 campaign. In 373 plate appearances against RHPs, Lowe managed a .238 ISO and a 128 wRC+. He hit 20 of his 21 home runs within the split. As for Jose Berrios ($7,100), while he was able to rebound from a nightmarish 2022, yet still struggled with LHBs. Berrios gave up 1.49 home runs per nine to the 406 lefties he faced.
Value
Jake Rogers, Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, $3,400 – Rogers showcased big power against LHPs in 2023, hitting nine home runs in just 98 at-bats within the split. It wasn’t the largest sample in the entire world, but when said sample produces a .327 ISO and a 128 wRC+, I won’t ask questions. Also, while Garrett Crochet ($6,500) possesses elite stuff and a lot of potential, Thursday will be his first real start since, well, college. There’s a reasonable chance he struggles.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $6,400 – Look, there’s a lot of stuff surrounding Ohtani right now, and maybe that possibility of distraction scares some people away. Not me. Ohtani remains one of the best hitters on the planet. Last season, in 429 plate appearances against RHPs, he slashed .327/.431/.701 with a 196 wRC+. With Mikolas’ documented issues with LHBs, Ohtani might have the most upside of any positional asset on this slate.
Stud
Chas McCormick, Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees, $4,200 – I’ve been waiting six months to get back to writing up McCormick against LHPs. Feels good to have this constant in my life again. In 138 plate appearances within the split last season, McCormick posted a 177 wRC+ — the sixth-highest mark in baseball among qualified hitters. Meanwhile, Nestor Cortes ($6,800) isn’t exactly Gerrit Cole. While his underlying numbers suggest he wasn’t as bad as his 4.97 ERA in 2023, it was still a 4.97 ERA. Not ideal.
Value
Mark Canha, Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, $3,900 – Canha will likely bat third or fourth for the Tigers against left-handed pitchers this season, which makes sense when you look at his success within the split in 2023. In 166 plate appearances, Canha registered a .361 OBP with a .200 ISO and a 126 wRC+. The 35-year-old isn’t necessarily an exciting asset, yet with a price tag below $4K, he’s very viable.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $500K Opening Day Special [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
