The PGA TOUR heads to Houston, Texas this week for the Texas Children’s Houston Open. Memorial Park Golf Course will be the host, and is a bear of a par 70, measuring at 7,412 yards, while featuring Poa over-seeded greens.
The field will be headlined at the top by Scottie Scheffler, who comes in as a ridiculous +260 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is an absolutely wild thing to type for a full-field PGA TOUR golf tournament.
In addition to Scheffler, 2023 U.S. Open champ Wyndham Clark will be teeing it up this week as well, along with young upstarts Sahith Theegala and Will Zalatoris.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Keith Mitchell to win (+4000)
The beautiful thing about Scheffler being in the field this week is that we get really nice numbers on red-hot golfers like Mitchell. Despite a poor final round at the Valspar last week, which saw Mitchell drop to T17 finish, he’s still playing the best golf of his career right now. Cashmere Keith already has five top-20s this season, including two separate T9 finishes at the American Express and Cognizant Classic.
Over the past 24 rounds in this field, Mitchell ranks No. 2 in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Ball-Striking, behind only Scheffler, while sitting seventh in Total Strokes gained in the same time frame. The big difference for Mitchell this season has been his iron play, which is turned from a liability into a massive weapon for him. The former Honda Classic winner has now gained on approach in seven of his past eight starts.
Mitchell entered the final round at Valspar last week with a two-shot lead, and with the way he’s playing right now, he should be right in the mix again this week at Memorial Park. Just to add fuel to the fire, Mitchell finished T9 at this event back the last time it was held back in 2022.
Getting 40/1 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, with the way Mitchell is striping it right now, is really strong value.
Andrew Novak to win (+11000)
A nice longshot I like this week is Novak, who much like Mitchell, is also playing some of the best golf of his career right now. He finished T17 last week at the Valspar, which marked just the second time over his past five starts where he’s failed to finish T9 or better. Outside of a hiccup at THE PLAYERS, Novak is hitting the ball as well as anyone in this field, having gained 5.1 or more strokes on approach in three of his past five events.
Pairing that elite iron-play with his already elite short-game is the reason Novak has been playing so well of late, and getting 110/1 on him in this spot is about as good as it gets. If you’re concerned about Novak not getting over the finish line, you can bet him at 18/1 to top-five and 8/1 to top-10 as well, both of which are also strong bets.
Bottom line, Novak is in too strong of form right now to fade, especially at these odds.
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