We have only four games tonight. LeBron James and Brandon Ingram are out. Anthony Davis ($10,300) and Jimmy Butler ($8,000) are probable. There are no major players listed as questionable. As of now, I don’t think there’s enough value to fit in the high-priced options tonight, so racking up as many minutes in the midrange is the path I’m choosing. Keep track of all the pertinent injury updates at DK Live.
As for back-to-backs, DAL and SAC played last night. GSW and LAL play tomorrow.
DraftKings Sportsbook has no game with a total of at least 240. There is no game with a total below 210. There is no double-digit favorite. There are two games within two points – OKC -1 over NOP and SAC -1 over DAL. There are two home dogs – MIA and NOP. Log into DK Sportsbook for the updates.
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Guard
Stud
Austin Reaves, Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks ($7,000) – With LeBron out, his massive usage has to go somewhere. On the season when he’s been off the court, Reaves has seen a 3.9 percent bump to 24.6 percent. Davis is at 3.9 percent as well while Russell has seen a 2.3 percent bump. I like all three options tonight. Over the last 10 games, the Bucks have been 27th in defensive rating and, against shooting guards, they have boosted the FPPM by a league-most 19.1 percent. The last game LeBron missed was against this same Bucks team seven games ago. Reaves played 37 minutes and put up 36.75 DKFP.
Other Options – Luka Doncic ($12,700), Damian Lillard ($8,900), De’Aaron Fox ($8,800), CJ McCollum ($7,300), D’Angelo Russell ($7,200), Terry Rozier ($6,800)
Value
Josh Giddey, Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans ($5,800) – It’s been a strange season for Giddey, as he was once playing over 30 minutes a game, but is now in the low 20s. Despite that, he’s been still able to provide those fantasy goodies, albeit less consistently. His ability to contribute across the board has helped but it’s the price that is most appealing. He was priced close to $8,000 earlier in the season. Now, he is $2,000 cheaper but is contributing similar fantasy stats. Over the last 11 games, Giddey has put up at least 20 DKFP in all with six over 30 and two with at least 40. The Pelicans have been the third-best defensive team over the last 10 games, so it’s not the best matchup, but on a four-game slate, I like the floor/ceiling combo of Giddey factoring in the price.
Other Options – Klay Thompson ($5,700), Keon Ellis ($4,500)
Forward
Stud
Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks vs. Los Angeles Lakers ($6,700) – It took a while for Middleton to get ramped up, finally playing in the low-to-mid 30s, but then he got injured again and missed 16 games. Since returning to action, he’s played in three of four while receiving 26, 33 and 27 minutes. That last game was a blowout so it looks like the team is ready to give him over 30 minutes of run. He’s put up 38.25, 41.5 and 43 DKFP over that span while garnering a usage rate in the 25 percent range. As I mentioned in the opening, I will likely be living in the midrange, unless significant value opens up.
Other Options – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300), Jimmy Butler ($8,000), Jalen Williams ($6,900), Trey Murphy III ($6,400)
Value
Naji Marshall, New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($4,300) – Marshall doesn’t start and only averages 0.89 DKFP per minute, but the price is nice, which is part of the reason why he’s exceeded point expectations 80 percent of the time this season. With Brandon Ingram out, Marshall has played 23 and 24 minutes over the last two games. The usage rate has been in the 21 percent range and he’s produced 25.75 and 30 DKFP.
Other Options – Keegan Murray ($5,900)
Center
Stud
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat ($6,300) – Green isn’t sexy and won’t be on Sportscenter unless he’s doing something not basketball-related. From a fantasy perspective, though, he is like manna from the heavens, because he rains down fantasy goodies from every inch of the sky. While the points won’t cause a flood of biblical proportions, he can score in the double digits. It’s the rest of the package that is enticing, as he grabs rebounds, dishes out assists and racks up defensive stats. Yes, the range of outcomes is wide, as he can put up DKFP in the teens, but he also has 50-DKFP upside if things break right. Over the last eight games, he’s gone for at least 20 DKFP in seven with three over 40 and a high of 50.5.
Other Options – Anthony Davis ($10,300), Chet Holmgren ($7,500)
Value
Larry Nance Jr., New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder ($4,200) – I do not like any of the value at center tonight. If I had to choose someone, it would be Nance Jr. The probability of him playing close to 30 minutes is slim, and he’s a low-usage player. He has played 27 and 23 minutes over the last two games, though, and with the matchup against Holmgren, the Pelicans could opt to play small more often.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
