Odds for 2024 MLB home run leader ahead of Opening Day

The MLB begins its regular season on Thursday, March 28. Bettors will have until the games begin to take any season-long action. One of the most entertaining stat races of the season is who will lead the league in home runs. Last year, Matt Olson led all of baseball with 54, while Shohei Ohtani led the American League with 44.

Let’s take a look at which players have the best odds to lead the MLB in home runs this season, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

2024 Home Run leader odds

Favorites

Aaron Judge +350
Matt Olson +600

There is no surprise for the players with the top odds. Judge hit 62 home runs in 2022 but dealt with some injuries last year and hit 37 home runs in 2023. He should benefit from the presence of Juan Soto in the batting lineup and should cut down on some walks, as pitchers won’t be able to pitch around him as often.

Olson led the league in home runs last season, and there haven’t been any monumental changes to him or the Atlanta Braves lineup to suggest he should have a huge drop. Sure, the first baseman may end up regressing slightly, but he has hit at least 34 home runs in three straight seasons.

Sleepers

Juan Soto +900

There is a lot of hype around Soto this season. He is in a contract year and now gets to play half of his games at Yankee Stadium. The porch isn’t as short in right field as old Yankee Stadium, but it still should play well to his power. Soto is projected to bat right in front of Judge, meaning opposing pitchers aren’t likely to pitch around Soto.

Pick: Judge +350

If he can stay healthy, Judge should put up monster numbers again this season. Based on various projections, we are likely looking for someone to hit at least 48 home runs. As long as the New York Yankees don’t sit him more to get him extra rest, he shouldn’t have a problem leading the league.

Odds