March Madness is known as the month of the underdog, and the first weekend of the tournament certainly has not disappointed us. We’ve seen battles down to the end, massive comebacks, and low-seeded autobids upsetting blue bloods, but it’s not just about the memories — it’s also about the numbers. How have the favorites fared against the spread so far this tournament? We take a look.
March Madness 2024: Betting favorites’ record against the spread
Favorites are 28-22-2 ATS
The favorites are nearly split down the middle against the spread, although something interesting to note here is that some lower-seeded teams actually entered as favorites. The No. 11 New Mexico Lobos lost to No. 6 Clemson by double digits, but entered as the betting favorite in the first round. The No. 11 Oregon Ducks entered as a one-point favorite over No. 6 South Carolina in the Round of 64 and defeated the Gamecocks by a significant margin.
But a pair of higher seeds that were also chalk, including NC State (vs. Oakland) and Creighton (vs. Oregon), and Houston (vs. Texas A&M) needed to take the game to overtime in order to cover the spread. So take away the extra period, and the underdogs are doing better in regulation against the spread than the overall ATS record would indicate.
Higher seeds’ record straight up
The better seed went 11-21 straight up in the first round, and 2-14 in the second round.
Not all higher seeds have entered as favorites, but they’ve been doing better against the spread this week than lower seeds have, though not by a significant margin.
Also nine first-round games and six second-round finished within 10 points, but it’s still been a very chalk tournament so far. There are just four teams in the Sweet 16 that have outperformed their seeding so far: No. 11 NC State, No. 6 Clemson, No. 5 Gonzaga, and No. 5 San Diego State.
And all eight No. 1 and No. 2 seeds remain in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
Is the over getting hotter?
The over is 26-25-1 f
The total has been the toughest place to find a trend in this tournament.
First Four: 2-2 over
First Round: 15-16-1
Second Round: 9-7
While there has been some big movement in some totals (
March Madness is known as the month of the underdog, and the first weekend of the tournament certainly has not disappointed us. We’ve seen battles down to the end, massive comebacks, and low-seeded autobids upsetting blue bloods, but it’s not just about the memories — it’s also about the numbers. How have the favorites fared against the spread so far this tournament? We take a look.
March Madness 2024: Betting favorites’ record against the spread
Favorites are 28-22-2 ATS
The favorites are nearly split down the middle against the spread, although something interesting to note here is that some lower-seeded teams actually entered as favorites. The No. 11 New Mexico Lobos lost to No. 6 Clemson by double digits, but entered as the betting favorite in the first round. The No. 11 Oregon Ducks entered as a one-point favorite over No. 6 South Carolina in the Round of 64 and defeated the Gamecocks by a significant margin.
But a pair of higher seeds that were also chalk, including NC State (vs. Oakland) and Creighton (vs. Oregon), and Houston (vs. Texas A&M) needed to take the game to overtime in order to cover the spread. So take away the extra period, and the underdogs are doing better in regulation against the spread than the overall ATS record would indicate.
Higher seeds’ record straight up
The better seed went 11-21 straight up in the first round
Not all higher seeds have entered as favorites, but they’ve been doing better against the spread this week than lower seeds have, though not by a significant margin.
Also nine first-round games and six second-round finished within 10 points, but it’s still been a very chalk tournament so far.
There are just four teams in the Sweet 16 that have outperformed their seeding so far: No. 11 NC State, No. 6 Clemson, No. 5 Gonzaga, and No. 5 San Diego State.
Is there value in the over?
The over is 26-25-1 f
The total has been the toughest place to find a trend in this tournament.
First Four: 2-2 over
First Round: 15-16-1
Second Round: 9-7
While there has been some big movement in some totals. And the variance has been massive. Grand Canyon vs. Alabama closed at 173, almost five points ahead of its lowest number at 168.5. But the teams finished a whopping 40 points under the close in the 72-61 Crimson Tide win.
Texas A&M and Houston were supposed to play a physical, defensive game with a total that was 134.5 at tip-off. The 100-95 score after overtime blew the projections out of the water.
If you can project the pace of play and offensive production in a game correctly, there’s still a lot of money to be made for those bettors in this tournament.