Opening day of the 2024 MLB season is Thursday, March 28. Bettors will have until games begin that day to wager on players’ season-long futures for certain stats. One of the most popular bets is attempting to predict whether or not a player will hit more or less home runs than sportsbooks think they will.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at our favorite home run future lines, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
2024 Home Run Futures odds
Favorites
Aaron Judge Over 41.5 (-125)
Austin Riley Over 35.5 (-110)
Juan Soto Over 36.5 (-125)
Judge is only one season removed from leading the league with 62 home runs in 2022. Last season, he hit 37 home runs and has tallied at least 37 in each of his last three campaigns. Judge, who only played in 106 games last year, has injury concerns, but if he can stay healthy, the presence of Soto should protect him in the lineup and allow him to hit his over.
Riley flies under the radar for the Atlanta Braves, thanks to Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson. He has hit at least 33 home runs in three straight seasons, including 37 last year. Riley has avoided injuries the last three years and missed eight regular-season games in that span. Barring his forgetting how to hit, he should be able to surpass this total.
Soto has picked a great time to have a contract year. He is set to be a free agent at the end of 2024 and gets to move from Petco Park to Yankee Stadium, which should be a little more friendly to the lefty. Soto will be protected in the lineup by Soto, and pitchers won’t be able to pitch around him. He hit a career-high 35 home runs last year, and I think he hits the over in 2024.
Sleepers
Elly De La Cruz Under 21.5 (+100)
Jorge Soler Under 28.5 (-120)
De La Cruz’s blinding speed and light tower power have excited the Cincinnati Reds fanbase. He played in 98 games last season and hit just .235 with 13 home runs. He swiped 35 bases, including a few highlight steals of home. De La Cruz mightily struggled against left-handed pitching (.184/.231/.263) and would need a hefty turnaround to hit the over even if he played in more games.
Soler was a solid get for the San Francisco Giants this offseason. He should bring a power bat to the Bay area as they looked to add to a struggling lineup that lacked pop. Soler hit 36 home runs last year but other than his career-high 48 in 2019, he hasn’t had more than 14 in a season. I think he finished with fewer than 29 home runs this season.
Pick: Paul Goldschmidt over 25.5 (-110)
Goldy had a down year, as did most of the St. Louis Cardinals in 2023. They finished dead last in the NL Central for the first time since its creation in 1994. Goldschmidt will turn 37 years old this season so Father Time could be a contributing factor to his hitting .268 with 25 home runs last season, but I think he bounces back. Outside of the shortened 2020 season, Goldy has hit at least 25 home runs in the last six seasons. He should finish with at least 26 in 2024.
Full List of Odds
2024 Player Home Runs Future Odds 3/24
| Player | Over HR Line | Over Odds | Under HR Line | under OddsOdds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Over HR Line | Over Odds | Under HR Line | under OddsOdds |
| Aaron Judge | Over 41.5 | −125 | Under 41.5 | +105 |
| Adley Rutschman | Over 20.5 | −110 | Under 20.5 | −110 |
| Adolis Garcia | Over 31.5 | −110 | Under 31.5 | −110 |
| Anthony Santander | Over 27.5 | −110 | Under 27.5 | −110 |
| Austin Riley | Over 35.5 | −110 | Under 35.5 | −110 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Over 28.5 | −110 | Under 28.5 | −110 |
| Brent Rooker | Over 24.5 | −110 | Under 24.5 | −110 |
| Bryce Harper | Over 30.5 | −115 | Under 30.5 | −105 |
| Byron Buxton | Over 23.5 | −115 | Under 23.5 | −115 |
| Cal Raleigh | Over 26.5 | −115 | Under 26.5 | −115 |
| Christian Walker | Over 29.5 | +100 | Under 29.5 | −120 |
| Christian Yelich | Over 17.5 | −105 | Under 17.5 | −125 |
| Christopher Morel | Over 26.5 | −110 | Under 26.5 | −110 |
| Cody Bellinger | Over 23.5 | −110 | Under 23.5 | −110 |
| Corbin Carroll | Over 23.5 | −115 | Under 23.5 | −105 |
| Corey Seager | Over 29.5 | −105 | Under 29.5 | −115 |
| Elly De La Cruz | Over 21.5 | −120 | Under 21.5 | +100 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Over 34.5 | +110 | Under 34.5 | −130 |
| Francisco Alvarez | Over 22.5 | −125 | Under 22.5 | −105 |
| Francisco Lindor | Over 27.5 | −110 | Under 27.5 | −110 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | Over 27.5 | +110 | Under 27.5 | −130 |
| Gunnar Henderson Regular | Over 27.5 | −105 | Under 27.5 | −115 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Over 24.5 | −105 | Under 24.5 | −125 |
| Jorge Soler | Over 28.5 | +100 | Under 28.5 | −120 |
| Jose Altuve | Over 23.5 | +105 | Under 23.5 | −125 |
| Jose Ramirez | Over 27.5 | +105 | Under 27.5 | −125 |
| Juan Soto | Over 36.5 | −125 | Under 36.5 | +105 |
| Julio Rodriguez | Over 31.5 | −115 | Under 31.5 | −115 |
| Kris Bryant | Over 19.5 | +110 | Under 19.5 | −130 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Over 39.5 | −110 | Under 39.5 | −110 |
| Kyle Tucker | Over 31.5 | +100 | Under 31.5 | −120 |
| Lane Thomas | Over 22.5 | +100 | Under 22.5 | −120 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | Over 29.5 | −110 | Under 29.5 | −110 |
| Manny Machado | Over 30.5 | +100 | Under 30.5 | −120 |
| Marcell Ozuna | Over 29.5 | −110 | Under 29.5 | −110 |
| Marcus Semien | Over 27.5 | −110 | Under 27.5 | −110 |
| Matt Chapman | Over 23.5 | +100 | Under 23.5 | −120 |
| Matt Olson | Over 42.5 | +110 | Under 42.5 | −130 |
| Max Muncy | Over 26.5 | −110 | Under 26.5 | −110 |
| Mike Trout | Over 30.5 | −110 | Under 30.5 | −110 |
| Mookie Betts | Over 32.5 | −115 | Under 32.5 | −105 |
| Nolan Arenado | Over 26.5 | −110 | Under 26.5 | −110 |
| Oneil Cruz | Over 25.5 | −115 | Under 25.5 | −105 |
| Ozzie Albies | Over 27.5 | −110 | Under 27.5 | −110 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | Over 25.5 | −110 | Under 25.5 | −110 |
| Pete Alonso | Over 42.5 | +100 | Under 42.5 | −120 |
| Rafael Devers | Over 33.5 | −110 | Under 33.5 | −110 |
| Randy Arozarena | Over 23.5 | −110 | Under 23.5 | −110 |
| Rhys Hoskins | Over 27.5 | −110 | Under 27.5 | −110 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr | Over 37.5 | −105 | Under 37.5 | −115 |
| Royce Lewis | Over 24.5 | −110 | Under 24.5 | −110 |
| Ryan McMahon | Over 21.5 | −110 | Under 21.5 | −110 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Over 38.5 | +120 | Under 38.5 | −150 |
| Spencer Torkelson | Over 29.5 | +100 | Under 29.5 | −120 |
| Trea Turner | Over 23.5 | −120 | Under 23.5 | +100 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Over 33.5 | −110 | Under 33.5 | −110 |
| Wyatt Langford | Over 24.5 | −115 | Under 24.5 | −115 |
| Yordan Alvarez | Over 37.5 | −105 | Under 37.5 | −115 |