We’re 3-3 in this here space so far, but hope to get on the right side of not paying the rake after today.
There are plenty of big brand teams looking to advance to the second weekend, but as we’ve seen with 12 higher-seeded teams winning in the first round… they call it March Madness for a reason.
2024 March Madness picks: Saturday, March 23
UNC -3.5 vs. Michigan State
It is always dangerous to pick against Tom Izzo in March, but we simply have no choice here. The Tar Heels are basically at home in Charlotte, had won eight in a row before falling to NC State in the ACC Final (a game they clearly didn’t need as they still ended up as a No. 1 seed), and looked fine against Wagner.
The computers have loved Michigan State much more than the eye test all year, and they jumped all over Mississippi State early in an impressive 69-51 win. But they just don’t have the physical talent to keep up with RJ Davis and Armando Bacot, and when they do force the ball to the role players for UNC, they are actually capable of getting efficient shots.
UNC’s defense has been a bit underrated all season, and comes in seventh at KenPom efficiency as of now, just one spot behind MSU. And where the Heels should be able to separate is on the defensive side, as they should be able to force turnovers and pace to find some easy baskets.
Gonzaga vs. Kansas Over 151.5
Despite the rash of injuries the Jayhawks have had this season, they’ve always been able to score. Having Kevin McCullar would make hitting this number easier, but Gonzaga only has Graham Ike on the bench with a chance of stopping Hunter Dickinson, So expect the Jayhawks to attack him early and force foul trouble, to which he is prone. When he’s on the bench, it should be an all you can eat buffet for KU.
As for the Zags, we know they can fill the cup, but where they struggle is to stop people. These are two pacey teams where the defense is behind the offense, and we expect the winner to get in the 80’s without much issue.
Tre King Under 7.5 points
When the Iowa State forward scores, it’s generally on stickbacks and actions around the rim. And that’s why he’ll struggle to get points against one of the better rebounding teams in the country in Washington State. King had two points against Houston in a 69-41 win for the Cyclones, and just five against South Dakota State in the NCAA opener. He’s a valuable player, but not for his offense, and we’ll go comfortably under here.
