March Madness continues to take over our bodies, but fortunately we’ve watched enough college basketball and deep-dived the numbers all season. So finding the bad ones is second nature. Or at least we hope so as we finish writing this from Las Vegas writing this at 2:15 a.m. PT.
We were 2-1 yesterday, and if Will Wade and McNeese State had decided to show up for the game they had against Gonzaga, it might have been 3-0. We’ll hopefully get close that today.
2024 March Madness picks: Friday, March 23
New Mexico -2.5 vs. Clemson
The struggles of the Mountain West Conference in this might give you pause, but the team that won four games in four days to take home the MWC Tournament is ready for this challenge.
UNM is one of the paciest teams in country, but they also do an excellent job of not turning the ball over (15th in America at 13.9% of possessions). But the difference should be Lobos point guard Jaelen House, who was brilliant in Las Vegas during the tournament, averaging 23 points per game and just one turnover at the event.
On the other side Clemson is in free fall, losing three of their last four to teams nowhere near the NCAA Tournament in Notre Dame, Wake Forest, and Boston College. This is two teams heading in opposite directions, and expect the high pressure style of Richard Pitino’s Lobos to win the day here.
San Diego State -6.5 vs. UAB
You’ve seen those commercials where someone buys their significant other a Lexus out of nowhere for the holidays and pulls it into the driveway? That’s about the level of gift the No. 4 seed Blazers got in the American Conference Tournament to receive their automatic bid.
They drew a horrible Wichita State team in the quarters, got No. 1 seed South Florida’s best player in Chris Youngblood fouled out on some terrible officiating and a preposterous technical foul, and then got Temple (NET 191!) in the final, who were playing their fifth game in five days after knocking off Florida Atlantic the day before. That’s the luxury car level of present head coach Andy Kennedy received here.
San Diego State is just a stronger, better, and more skilled version of UAB, and are coming off a Final Four appearance last season. Both teams play a very physical, defensive style, but one is the ninth-best defensive team in the country according to KenPom, and has the MWC Player of the Year in Jaedon LeDee. And while SDSU isn’t exactly an offensive juggernaut at 55th in KenPom offensive efficiency, UAB physicality isn’t always efficient; they sit 200th in KenPom defensive efficiency.
Expect SDSU’s physicality and power to keep talented junior Yaxel Lendeborg (13.9 points, 10.7 rebounds per game) in check, and for the Aztecs to cruise down the stretch.
Bonus pick: UAB vs. SDSU Under 140
Neither of these teams are ever in a hurry, and you have to figure the officiating is going to let plenty go around the rim just so this isn’t a 3-hour foul fest. The first to 45 should be the winner here, because either team might not need 60 to play on Sunday.
