The No. 4 Duke Blue Devils will take on the No. 13 Vermont Catamounts in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament on Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS from Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Duke and Vermont are playing out of the South Region of the bracket and the winner will face either No. 5 Wisconsin or No. 12 James Madison in the second round. Below we’ll go over the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and give our best bet for the matchup.
2024 March Madness picks
No. 4 Duke vs. No. 13 Vermont best bet
We’re into the second full campaign of the Jon Scheyer era of Duke basketball. Last season, the Blue Devils fell in the second round as a 5-seed to No. 4 Tennessee. This team enters coming off a loss to eventual ACC Tournament champion NC State. The state of North Carolina has not treated Duke well this season. Four of Duke’s eight losses have come to N.C. schools. The Blue Devils do have some signature wins over Michigan State, Baylor and Pittsburgh on the road.
Duke does a lot of things well and has one of the best players in the country in big man Kyle Filipowski. He is your prototypical inside-out Duke big, averaging 17.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per game while shooting 35% from outside. The Blue Devils have a deep rotation of guards led by senior Jeremy Roach and freshman Jared McCain. Duke ranks inside the top 10 in offense on KenPom and has a top-25 defense as well. The Blue Devils are disciplined and don’t foul often and are also a good 3-point shooting team.
If you’re not familiar with T.J. Sorrentine, please go educate yourself now. That was back when we had real upsets and Gus Johnson calling games. But let’s talk about this Vermont team. The Cats are no stranger to March Madness; this is the third year in a row John Becker’s team will play in the tournament. The past two seasons have resulted in first-round exits. Last season as a 15-seed, the Catamounts played a very good Marquette squad. But the year before as a 13-seed, Vermont gave No. 4 Arkansas a run for their money in a 75-71 loss. Don’t expect Vermont to go quietly in this one.
This is a very good defensive Vermont squad, ranking 60th on KenPom. The Cats also haven’t done a ton of losing this season. Vermont has lost once since the end of December, a two-point road loss to NJIT. The Cats basically ran the table in the America East Conference. What we would have liked to see was a few tougher non-conference matchups vs. Power schools. So it’s unclear how this team will respond to facing a team like Duke.
Vermont plays at a slow pace and also does a good job taking care of the ball. It will be interesting what rotation Becker breaks out in a tournament setting; Vermont usually goes at least seven players deep. The scoring is spread out, so again, it’s unclear who would be the go-to guy in crunch time. Junior guard TJ Long leads the Cats in scoring with 12.2 points per game and is their best outside shooting at 37%.
Betting lines
Friday odds
Spread: Duke -12.5
Total: 133
Moneyline: Duke -850, Vermont +575
Opening odds
Spread: Duke -12
Total: 132.5
Moneyline: Duke -800, Vermont +550
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Best bet: Kyle Filipowski O7.5 rebounds (-135)
I’m going to fade the game lines, though I’d recommend in-game betting for this one. I can see a scenario in which Vermont hangs around but I wonder if size will be too much of an issue for the Cats. Vermont has no one on the roster over 6-foot-9. That could be a major issue going up against a 7-footer like Filipowski. He’s gone over this rebounding total in 18 of 32 games this season, so we’re seeing it hit at above a 50% clip. I think Duke will filter the ball down low because of the size advantage. We know Vermont plays good defense, so expect them to be aggressive on the perimeter defending the three. I think Filipowski eats though and gets a double-double.
