The Midwest Region of the 2024 NCAA Tournament tips off on Thursday with the No. 14 seed Akron Zips looking for the upset over the No. 3 seed Creighton Blue Jays.
Akron Zips vs. Creighton Blue Jays (-12.5, 141)
In a lot of cases where the mid-major tries to spring an upset over a top-seeded power conference team, the size and physicality are matchable but Akron also has the nation’s top rebounder, Enrique Freeman, on its side.
The 6-foot-7 Freeman leads the team in almost every statistical category with 18.6 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game while shooting 37% from 3-point range.
While Creighton ranks 17th in the nation in points scored on a per-possession basis, it is a team that has experienced offensive volatility this season when playing on the road. Creighton has scored 67 points or fewer in regulation in six of its last 12 games in a road or neutral court environment and is averaging 18.9 points per 100 possessions in road games.
While what the Zips do on the glass with Freeman’s rebounding gets most of the attention, they also rank 14th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, which will impact a Creighton bunch that shoots 38.5% from 3-point range at home compared to 33.7% on the road.
Also helping Akron in this tournament setting is not having to prepare for a very wide range of looks from Creighton as it gets close to the lowest percentage of points from its bench of any team in the NCAA Tournament.
The only non-starter for Creighton that is averaging more than 9.7 minutes per game off the bench is Francisco Farabello, who is contributing 4.1 points and 1.5 assists per game as the Blue Jays’ main reserve.
With Akron ranking 37th in road rebound rate and has the slight edge in points allowed per possession, ranking 48th while Creighton ranks 75th in this category, Akron will put Creighton on upset watch.
The Play: Akron +12.5
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