The No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs will take on the No. 9 Michigan State Spartans to kick off the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament on Thursday at 12:15 p.m. ET on CBS from Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. Below we’re going over the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and giving you our best bet for the matchup.
2024 March Madness picks
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Michigan State best bet
The Bulldogs entered the SEC Tournament in desperate need of some wins to get into the field for March Madness. Mississippi State was on a four-game losing streak but strung together wins over LSU and Tennessee to strength their resume and get in as the 8-seed in the West Region. The Bulldogs had finished 9th in the SEC standings and 21-13 overall (8-10 in conference play).
Mississippi State is anchored by its defense. The Bulldogs rank 30th on KenPom overall but are top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency and are one of the best teams in the Nation at defending the 3-point line. That is a very important stat going into the tournament. Where the Bulldogs struggle is on offense. Miss State isn’t a very good 3-point shooting team, they turn the ball over frequently and don’t get to the free throw line often. The one plus on offense is offensive rebounding. Bigs Tolu Smith and Cameron Matthews are both excellent on the offensive glass. The 5-10 Josh Hubbard leads the offense averaging 17.1 points per game.
Ahhh yes, Tom Izzo and the Spartans are back in the dance for a fourth consecutive season. Izzo is on one of the more remarkable runs as head coach, having made the NCAA Tournament in 26 of the past 27 seasons. The only reason that isn’t 27 straight is because of COVID-19. That stretch has included seven trips to the Final Four and one National Championship. While the Spartans are a 9-seed, you can never overlook Izzo’s squad.
Now that we’ve massaged his ego a bit, let’s look at this year’s team. The Spartans finished the season 19-14 but had been ranked as high as No. 4 in the AP Top-25 this season. KenPom loves Michigan State, ranking the Spartans 18th overall. Like most Michigan State teams, the Spartans are known for their defense, ranking 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They slow the tempo down significantly and force opponents into long possessions. Nine of the Spartans 19 wins this season have come against Quad 1 or 2 opponents. All of their losses have been to Quad 1 or 2 opponents. So Michigan State has one of the highest quality schedules in the NCAA this season.
But really Michigan State has two notable wins — over Baylor semi-home and Illinois at home. Okay, we’ll throw in an Indiana State team that probably should have been in the tourney as well. Other than that, Michigan State mostly beat the teams they were supposed to. And a handful of those away losses were close games. The Spartans don’t really do anything well on offense but senior guard Tyson Walker can fill it up, averaging 18.2 points per game this season.
Betting lines
Thursday odds
Spread: Michigan State -1
Total: 130.5
Moneyline: Michigan State -118, Miss State -102
Opening odds
Spread: Michigan State -1
Total: 130.5
Moneyline: Michigan State -122, Miss State +102
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Best bet: Miss State +1.5/Under 130.5 points +240
This bet is a bit “out there” for our best bets this tournament. But I like the Bulldogs to win and this should be a defensive slogfest of a game. Mississippi State and Michigan State both rank in the top-20 defensively. Plus, neither team is very good on offense. Michigan State shoots 35.9% as a team from the 3-point line and the Bulldogs defend that well. We also know the Spartans will force long possessions and the Bulldogs are good on the offensive glass. So that should lower the scoring even further. I think Mississippi State can grind out a win or cover in a close game while the score stays low to hit the under. It’s risky, so if you want a less risky, maybe take the alternate spread on the Bulldogs at +2.5 for -140.
