The No. 7 Dayton Flyers take on the No. 10 Nevada Wolf Pack in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at 4:30 p.m. ET on TBS on Thursday. Dayton and Nevada are playing out of the West Region in the March Madness bracket from Delta Center in Salt Lake City. That may give Nevada a slight advantage in terms of fan travel. Either way, this should be a close matchup between two quality teams. Below we’re going to break down the matchup and give our best bet via DraftKings Sportsbook odds.
2024 March Madness picks
No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Nevada best bet
The Flyers boast one of the top offenses in the Nation and rank 32nd overall on KenPom. Dayton finished third in the Atlantic-10 conference during the regular season at 14-4 (24-7 overall). The Flyers were an excellent home team during the regular season, going a clean 15-0 while going 6-5 on the road and 3-1 on neutral courts. That isn’t exactly encouraging when you factor in Nevada’s proximity to SLC vs. Dayton’s. This is more of a road game than neutral site game.
Dayton has a stud scorer in DaRon Holmes II, who averages 20.4 points per game this season. He’s accompanied by lights out shooters in Nate Santos and Koby Brea, the latter shooting nearly 50% from distance this season. If there’s one thing that can carry a team in the tournament, it’s outside shooting. The one concern is on the defensive side of the ball for Dayton. Plus, the Flyers don’t play at a high pace, so if they run cold from the 3-point line, that could spell disaster.
The Wolf Pack bring a much more balanced team to the table. Nevada ranks 36th on KenPom overall and is top-50 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. The Wolf Pack also finished second in a very strong Mountain West Conference at 13-5 (26-7 overall). But Nevada did bow out in their first MWC tournament game against Colorado State, which is in the First Four. But Nevada did enough this season for us to shake that off as a blip on the radar. The Wolf Pack beat TCU on a neutral court by 13 points. Nevada went 6-6 against Quad 1 opponents and performed well in the other three quadrants. So none of their losses would be considered bad. Just the road loss to Wyoming.
Nevada is led by guard Jarod Lucas, who averages 17.8 points per game while shooting close to 40% from 3-point range. The Wolf Pack lack the shooting of Dayton but there’s one stat that sticks out: Free Throw Rate. Nevada ranks 3rd on KenPom in that category. We all know how important free throws are and the Wolf Pack shoot 72.1% as a team. Lucas is one of the best free throw shooters in the country at nearly 90% from the stripe. Kenan Blackshear is the other guard in the backcourt and is a classic get-to-the-rim player. He’s also a good rebounder and distributor. One issue Nevada could run into is depth if Blackshear and Lucas either run cold or get into foul trouble.
Betting lines
Thursday odds
Spread: Nevada -1.5
Total: 136.5
Moneyline: Nevada -122, Dayton +102
Opening odds
Spread: Nevada -1
Total: 137
Moneyline: Nevada -118, Dayton -102
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Best bet: Nevada -1
The over isn’t a bad idea either given the players on both sides. But I worry about Dayton living and dying too much from the 3-point line. It’s what killed them in the A-10 Tournament against eventual tournament champion Duquesne. The team shot 26.9% from distance and lost by eight points. Nevada has a veteran group and plays better defense. Lucas and Blackshear shouldn’t be held in check. Lucas was one of the key players on that Oregon State team that went to the Elite Eight back in 2020-21, so he’s battle tested. The ML bets appear to be split but more of the bets and handle are on Nevada to cover this spread. That feels like the play here.
