The No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks take on the No. 13 Samford Bulldogs in the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament at 9:55 p.m. ET from Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Below we’re going to go over the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and give our best bet for the matchup.
2024 March Madness picks
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Samford best bet
This isn’t the Bill Self Jayhawks team we’re used to seeing. Kansas limped to a 22-10 finish and sputtered out in the Big 12 Tournament to Cincinnati in a 20-point loss. That was without their two best players — Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. When healthy, Kansas has two of the best players in the entire tournament. Health is the biggest question. Self ruled McCullar out for the rest of the NCAA Tournament. Dickinson will play vs. Samford, however.
With the McCullar news, this isn’t the same Jayhawks team we saw all season. The Jayhawks have wins over UConn, Kentucky, Houston and Baylor this season. Kansas also has lost to West Virginia and Central Florida, two of the bottom dwellers in the Big 12. Plus, McCullar and Dickinson were both healthy in those losses. So the Jayhawks are a bit of an enigma this season. And that explains Bill Self Kansas teams of late. The Jayhawks have won this tournament (2022) recently. And that championship has been sandwiched by two second-round exits.
But as we noted, Kansas can hang with anyone in the tournament. Dickinson averages a double-double with 18 points per game and McCullar also averages over 18 points per game. That’s a lot of points for Kansas to make up with McCullar out. K.J. Adams Jr. and DaJuan Harris Jr. are going to have to step up. We also know Self is a great coach who should be able to make the proper adjustments.
The Jayhawks are a tad over-seeded, ranking 22nd on KenPom and outside the top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency. But Kansas boasts a top-10 defense on KenPom as well. It’s just, if anything goes wrong with McCullar and/or Dickinson, the team sort of falls apart. The defense is good but also let WVU score 91 points on it this season. So more mixed results. To put it simply, Kansas is hard to trust.
As for Samford, the Bulldogs started their season off tough against Purdue and VCU in non-conference. But would only lose three games the rest of the season in Southern Conference play, and would run the table to win the Southern Tournament. The Bulldogs finished 29-5 on the season and went 18-0 at home to place first in the conference.
Samford plays at a very fast pace, ranking 14th in adjusted tempo and 6th in average possession length. It’s almost a reckless style of basketball. Samford also forces a lot of turnovers on defense, which is generally a plus in the tournament. They also rank within the top-10 on KenPom in 3-point percentage. So this is a fast-paced team that plays aggressive on both sides of the ball and shoots well from outside. Feels a lot like a team who could pull off an upset in the first round.
Betting lines
Thursday odds
Spread: Kansas -7
Total: 154
Moneyline: Kansas -285, Samford +230
Opening odds
Spread: Kansas -7
Total: 153
Moneyline: Kansas -298, Samford +240
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Best bet: Over 153
I’m going to take the cowards route and bet on the total rather than the spread or ML. Although now with the McCullar news, this definitely puts Kansas on upset watch going into the first round. Adams and Harris are very good and should step in and help fill the scoring void. My best advice in this scenario is be patient and wait to see how Kansas looks in the first five minutes. Chances are you won’t lose much on the spread or ML. You may even be able to get Kansas reeling early and then a better number presents itself.
As for the over, while Kansas is good when it comes to defensive metric, I will reiterate that this team allowed a 9-win WVU team to score 91 points. And Samford has about four rotation players who shoot it well from outside (Achor Achor, A.J. Staton-McCray, Jaden Campbell and Rylan Jones). This game should be a track meet and even if Kansas pulls away, that could just mean a lot of easy garbage-time buckets for Samford. With McCullar out, I still think Kansas can score plenty of points on a mid-major. And if anything the game could be tighter, which could give us more late-game points if fouls come into play.
