It’s probably not going to happen.
But unlike the first 38 years of the NCAA Tournament having No. 16 seeds, it’s not impossible. No No. 1 seed lost their first game from 1985-2017 in the NCAA Tournament, and until we saw it actually happen it seemed almost impossible.
And when No. 1 Virginia went down to the Retrievers of No. 16 University of Maryland Baltimore County in 2018, everyone saw that it could be done. It was proven again by Fairleigh Dickinson’s win over Purdue in 2023, and much of that same Purdue team is back in 2024 looking to avoid that fate again.
But if you’re looking for a 1 vs. 16 stunner in 2024, it’s really, really hard to find one.
No. 16 Wagner is 334th in KenPom adjusted offense. That’s not great when facing Armando Bacot and the rest of the North Carolina Tar Heels.
No. 16 Stetson is 342nd in KenPom adjusted offense. With Tristen Newton and Donovan Clingan still wearing UConn uniforms, that doesn’t feel so hot either.
Either Montana State or Grambling will face No. 1 Purdue, and Grambling has been on a heater of late. They’ll have won 10 of their last 11 if they can get by Montana State in the First Four, and they have shown the ability to get to the free throw line, which generally increases in early rounds of the NCAA Tournament. But let’s just say we expect the Boilermakers to be locked in after becoming a national laughingstock last season.
And that leaves No. 16 Longwood, who faces No. 1 Houston. The Lancers get an offensive rebound on 37% of their misses, and they get to the free throw line a lot. These are qualities you want in an upset team, even one that shoots just 34% from three-point range. They’ll need to make basically everything from the perimeter, and hope that UH goes through one of their oft-extended shooting slumps.
The overwhelming athleticism and physicality of the Cougars should put Longwood away easily, but if you had to pick one team to go down, it’s probably Jamal Shead and company? But at least this season, we don’t like the chances of The Ultimate Upset very much at all.
Houston is a 24-point favorite over Longwood at DraftKings Sportsbook.
