UConn is going to win the national championship.
To lose three starters off last year’s title team but still be the favorite to cut down the nets yet again is unlike anything we’ve seen in the modern era of college basketball. While the Florida Gators returned plenty for their back-to-back run in 2007, to be this close to running it back in the transfer portal and NIL era is stunning.
The Huskies are the No. 1 team in KenPom, No. 1 in KenPom offense, have plenty of depth to counter whatever matchup they might get along the way. It will take a spate of bad luck, an injury, or “one of those nights” to keep them from winning their sixth national championship.
So while the futures price on the Huskies at +360 at DraftKings Sportsbook seems low (it is, because you missed the +700 some of us got earlier this season), maybe make it a parlay with the South Carolina women to take down their tournament at -140 (+688 for the pair), who are going to coast to their title. Rooting for both the favorites might make you very unpopular with friends at watch parties the next three weekends, but there does seem to be a bit of value there.
But for the sake of argument, let’s go through and find a couple other teams that might just be able to step through and win it all if the Huskies stub their toe on The Road to Glendale.
Iowa State +2000
The Cyclones can go through long stretches where they struggle to score. But they are the best defensive team in college basketball, and if you take out Houston it’s by a mile. And that’s the same Houston team they ripped to shreds in the Big 12 Tournament final.
ISU forces a turnover on 25.7% of possessions, which is mind-boggling when you’ve played in the Big 12, the best conference in America by a decent margin. They hold opponents to a 47.1% eFG, and they’re 10-6 in Quad 1 games. They are athletic, overwhelming, but not super-deep. Having days off in between games will matter here, and they’ll need to stay healthy.
But head coach T.J. Otzelberger is going to have his choice of jobs whenever he wants them due to the remarkable work he’s done in Ames. They can very much do this, and even this falling price is too high.
Creighton +3000
If you’ve watched the Bluejays the last two months, you know they can shoot the lights out. And all that perimeter scoring opens up so much space for Baylor Scheierman and Ryan Kalkbrenner in the middle. Scheierman has been one of the best players in America down the stretch, and yeah both those giants can stroke the three as well.
But what they don’t get credit for is their defense, which is 24th by KenPom Adjusted despite being dead-last in the country in turnovers created per possession. The secret sauce in Omaha is not allowing basically any easy transition baskets, and they are No. 1 in the nation in free throws allowed vs. field goals allowed: They simply do not foul you.
The only way to beat CU is to make a ton of open shots, because Kalkbrenner will roam the paint as an eraser as the guards send every driver middle. But CU will likely to do that as well, and it might come down to who has the ball last in a shootout.
Texas +10000
This very likely isn’t happening, but it might happen more than once every 100 times. Texas has one of the best tough-shot makers in the country in Max Abmas, and one with tons of NCAA Tournament big moments on his resume already. They’ve also got an eraser of their own in Dylan Disu, and if he can stay healthy for six games the Longhorns can make some noise.
The talent is clearly there in Austin, and when they put it together the Longhorns can play with anyone in the country. But it’s the long stretches of turnovers and defensive lapses that tend to cost them. A very high ceiling, but a low floor too.
You want a team that’s got enough talent to go get it done, and can put it together for three weekends to pull off a miracle. The path would be just like their women’s volleyball team that won it all in December; plenty of NCAA Tournament experience that got white-hot at the right time.
