Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers
Total under 203.5 -113
The under has hit over 53% of the time this season when a favorite is rested at home. Not the most overwhelming number, but it becomes more promising when you look at its recent performance. Over the last 30 days, the under is 106-57-3 in this setting — that’s a success rate north of 60%.
The Cavs are in that very setting on Wednesday, and they’re playing the team that’s seen the under hit more often than any other this season. The under is 44-24 (64.7%) across all of the Heat’s games. Moreover, the under is 17-6 when the Heat are playing as a road dog.
This total is the lowest Miami has seen this season, trailed closely by Monday’s 206.5-point total. Outside of Wednesday’s game and Monday’s, the Heat have only had a total set below 210 once — back on November 24 vs. the Knicks. Both in Monday’s game and that matchup vs. New York, the under hit.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Utah Jazz
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 31.5 points -105
Every game is significant for the Thunder as they work to edge out Denver and Minnesota atop the Western Conference. However, OKC does not need SGA in this game in order to secure a win vs. Utah. With the 15.5-point spread serving as evidence, this game has serious blowout potential.
Moreover, SGA has not gone over this number yet in any of OKC’s prior three meetings vs. the Jazz this season. On top of that, he went 3-0 to the under in those games. One of those three meetings vs. Utah was an instance where SGA saw his point prop total increase after the under on his points prop hit in the game prior. He’s been in that situation seven times, and Wednesday will be the eighth time. To this point, the under is 5-2 in those games.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
