The Connecticut Huskies enter the 2024 NCAA Tournament as the overall No. 1 seed and more importantly, are the defending national champions. The Huskies ran the gauntlet last year with breathtaking efficiency as a No. 4 seed, and have built on that run to enter this year’s bracket as the clear favorite to win it all.
However, no team since the 2005-06 and 2006-07 Florida Gators has successfully completed this run twice. Even those Gators had some scares, winning by just four points against a No. 7 seed Georgetown squad in the 2006 Sweet 16 before getting more convincing victories. Even though the Gators didn’t have much trouble the second time around, four of their games were won by single digits. Florida had a No. 3 seed in its first title run and a No. 1 seed in the second, similar to UConn’s seeding. However, here’s why we believe the Huskies won’t repeat.
Why UConn won’t repeat as champions
Second Round
Northwestern is more than capable of pulling off an upset. The Wildcats have beaten Dayton, Illinois and Purdue this season (all three in the tournament) and had a close run-in with another tournament team in Mississippi State. However, drawing an experienced Florida Atlantic squad that went to the Final Four last year would be a much worse scenario. Preparing for that type of squad with just one day off isn’t easy, even for a battle-tested group like UConn. This is already setting up to be a problem.
Sweet 16
UAB is a popular upset pick over San Diego State in the famous 5-12 line but the Aztecs made the national title game a year ago against the Huskies. They were overwhelmed for much of the game but did make a late run to close the gap a bit. There’s a potential title rematch in the Sweet 16 round, and that can easily go the other way for UConn. However, the much more daunting challenge would be Auburn. The Tigers are the only team who rank in the top 10 in KenPom for both offensive and defensive efficiency, which is usually the hallmark of a title team. The Huskies are barely outside of this metric, as are a few other squads. The Tigers would be a bad matchup for UConn.
Elite Eight
This might actually be somewhat smooth sailing for UConn compared to the earlier rounds. Iowa State and Illinois would both present different challenges, but neither have done much in the tournament in recent years. There’s a real chance UConn isn’t playing either school if the Huskies make it this far. The Illini would be able to keep pace with UConn in a high-scoring game, while the Cyclones are the top defensive team in KenPom and could potentially have the answer for the Huskies and their No. 1 offense.
Final Four
When looking at the potential Final Four matchups for UConn, there are only three teams that come to mind. North Carolina, Arizona and Baylor are probably the best-equipped teams to make it out of the West region, and all three are capable of stymying the Huskies. The Tar Heels have one of the better defenses in the nation, Arizona is on the fringes of being a top-10 team in both KenPom metrics, and Baylor has a lethal offense when things are clicking. A potential matchup with an experienced North Carolina team out for redemption after last year’s meltdown is probably the least favorable matchup for the Huskies.
National Championship
Once you get to this point, the matchups don’t really matter anymore. Every team is going to be either highly rated analytically or on some type of ridiculous roll. Houston and Purdue would probably be the worst matchups on paper for UConn, but Marquette, Duke, Kentucky, Tennessee, Creighton and Kansas all would present unique challenges. The Huskies have already smoked Marquette a few times this year but familiarity is more dangerous if you are the team which has won routinely.
What we think will happen
Barring an unforeseen upset in the first round, UConn should make it to the Sweet 16 after what I believe will be a tough round of 32 game against FAU. However, I think the Huskies see their run end at the hands of a red-hot Auburn team coming off a win in the SEC conference tournament.