The NCAA Tournament is here, which means it’s time for the best four days of the year on the sports calendar. The action kicks off with roughly 12 hours of hoops on Thursday, so here are the games in the first day of the first round that I’m targeting on DraftKings Sportsbook. Keep in mind many of these were put out on X and in our DK Network betting group.
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Mississippi State ML (+100) — 1.5-units
We’re supposed to just sit around and not bet the first game of the tournament on Thursday afternoon? In all seriousness, I do like the Bulldogs here. They’ve proven very tough in the SEC this season with some notable wins, most recently mopping the floor with Tennessee in the SEC Tournament. On the flip side, Sparty just hasn’t had this season. You’ll hear plenty about what Tom Izzo has done in March, but he really loses just as much as he wins. Somewhat similar teams here, but I like the upside of the Bulldogs more, and the Izzo factor creates a bit of a discount.
BYU/Texas Tech ML Parlay (-120) — 1.5-units
Yes, I lost a fortune fading NC State in the ACC Championship game against UNC. Yes, I’m going to do it again in the NCAA Tournament, except hopefully win this time. The Red Raiders opened as low as 3.5, but the number spiked pretty quick. Duquesne has no business being in this field, let alone being an 11-seed. I think BYU is the perfect ML parlay piece here to buy this number where we need it on Texas Tech. Tech is a bit dinged up, but have actually been playing better since big man Warren Washington went out of the lineup — including bouncing this BYU team from the Big 12 Tournament in style. This just has to be the game it all catches up to NC State and their 90th-ranked defensive efficiency … otherwise I’ll just have to continue to keep fading.
Oregon ML (+105) — 2-units
We’re paying a bit of a premium here on a hot conference champ, but I’m fine with that given the matchup and the health of this Ducks squad. Oregon was a disappointment for much of the season, but now they are fully healthy and showing what they can do. N’Faley Dante is a massive difference maker in the middle, and the matchup bodes well here with the Gamecocks not offering much resistance in the paint. It was a tremendous season for South Carolina as one of the biggest surprises in the nation, but I like the bigger Ducks to control this game on the glass.
Nevada ML (-118) — 2.5-units
I don’t want to say Dayton was “on the bubble,” because I think the Flyers clearly deserved to be in despite limping down the stretch. However, the committee sees Dayton much higher that I do — I was thinking maybe a 10-seed, and they wound up a 7-seed. On the other side, they get an under-seeded Nevada team, as the entire Mountain West Conference seems under-seeded in this tournament — outside of an over-seeded San Diego State team, strangely. Anyway, I really like the Wolfpack in this one, as they’ve been the much better team the last month or so. Nevada is also a much more balanced team that’s consistently been playing solid competition in the MW. Dayton has been slipping up to lesser foes in the A-10, and I expect their 85th-ranked defensive efficiency to ultimately let them down in this one. Ultimately, I liked this one enough to add to the play since I first put it out.
McNeese +6.5 (-110) — 1.5-units
Losing isn’t something Will Wade and the Cowboys have done much this season, dropping just three games on the season — and two of them were prior to Thanksgiving. The few signature wins the Cowboys do have were over okay teams in Michigan, UAB and VCU — none of them are Gonzaga, but you have to beat the teams the schedule puts in front of you. All three of those wins did come by double digits, as McNeese has been winning games by an insane margin of more than 18 points per game this season. Strength of schedule was a huge issue, but this is the Cowboys chance to show what they can do. Gonzaga has had its tournament struggles in the past, and this is far from a vintage Zags squad. I think the Cowboys as least hang around with an over-seeded Bulldogs team.
Drake ML (-110) — 1.5-units
Drake has been building towards this for years now. Two years ago this core finally reached the NCAA Tournament in the First Four, and defeated Wichita State. However, the Bulldogs lost to USC in the first round of the big dance. Last year, this team had Miami on the ropes before the Hurricanes ended the game on a 17-1 run to sneak out a victory. Drake is hungry to get over the hump, and I think this team is ready to do so. Washington State has shown a high ceiling in a pair of wins over Arizona, but the Cougars also aren’t playing their best basketball right now. Drake has thrived in Quad 1 opportunities, going 4-1 in those games. I like the Bulldogs to step up a seize the moment here.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
