The NCAA Tournament is here, which means it’s time for the best four days of the year on the sports calendar. The action kicks off with roughly 12 hours of hoops on Thursday and Friday, so here are the games in the second day of the first round that I’m targeting on DraftKings Sportsbook. Keep in mind many of these were put out on X and in our DK Network betting group.
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UAB +7 (-108) — 1.5-units
I understand that SDSU made a run to the National Championship game last year, but this is not the same team. The Aztecs are severely over-seeded given where the rest of the Mountain West was placed in the bracket. Despite the run to the conference title game, this team is still just 13-19 ATS, including 4-7 ATS out of conference. UAB isn’t a team we thought would be here, but the Blazers have had a good season and are hot at the right time. But make no mistake, this is more of a SDSU fade. This should be another nail biter — as was the case last year for SDSU when they got fortunate to escape Charleston.
New Mexico ML (-125) — 2-units
I put these play out as soon as the matchup against Clemson was on the board, and it went on to become a pretty popular play. The number flew to the Lobos, but has since been bet back towards the opener. New Mexico got completely disrespected here with an 11-seed, essentially suggesting it needed a win at the Mountain West Championship to get an auto-bid. KenPom, NET, you name it and the Lobos grade as the better team here, and while Clemson holds a slight offensive edge, the edge for New Mexico on defense is a much wider gap. I’ll play on the hot team here coming out of the far more competitive conference.
Texas A&M +1.5 (-110) — 1.5-units
The Aggies let down against some really bad teams this season, going 2-4 in Quad 3 opportunities. That ultimately hurt their seeding, as it should. But against better competition, A&M was able to rise up — 7-7 in Quad 1 games, versus just 4-7 for Nebraska. The Huskers are no pushover here. They hold a major 3-point shooting advantage over the Aggies and are a bit more balanced on both sides of the ball. But I put stock in coming out of the SEC, where A&M took for more tests. Nebraska was a dominant home team this season at 18-1, but went just 5-9 combined in all games away from home. A&M proved it can win away from home at 10-9, and I think that SEC physicality will come into play. The Aggies also have a guard that can takeover the game in Wade Taylor.
Charleston vs. Alabama OVER 173.5 (-105) — 1-unit
This total has been bet up about five points off open, but I still think we have plenty of room here. Alabama has been a revolving door on defense lately, and Charleston isn’t going to just change its style of play to slow the game down in the tournament. ‘Bama games are 24-8 to the over this season, and they enter the game with 112th-ranked defensive efficiency. Charleston ranks 58th in offensive efficiency, and shouldn’t have much of an issue putting up points here. On the flip side, the Tide should post a huge number here, putting up the second-best offense in the country against a defense that ranks 176th in efficiency. Pure numbers play here in what should be a track meet. Let’s hope the shots go down.
James Madison +5.5 (-110) — 1.5-units
JMU showed us in the first game of the season that they’re ready for this tournament. I want to back teams that know how to win tough road games, and they went to Michigan State on opening night and got the outright victory. Now the Dukes will look to take down another Big Ten opponent, but this time they won’t be sneaking up on anyone. I don’t think Wisco will push the pace here much, ranking 307th in tempo. That should help keep the underdog in the game here. JMU was a combined 17-2 in road/neutral games this season. I think they’ll be ready to keep this one tight.
Grand Canyon +5.5 (-110) — 1.5-units
I really wish the Antelopes got a different draw here, as I’m also high on St. Mary’s this season. But I do think this is probably too many points for the ‘Lopes here, who were pretty convincing in the WAC this season. Out of conference, Grand Canyon tested itself best it could, with wins over San Diego State and San Francisco, while dropping a game by seven points to South Carolina.
This team showed some potential late last season, winning the WAC as a 5-seed and getting a 14-seed in the NCAA Tournament. They wound up losing by 12 to a far superior Gonzaga team, but made it a game almost the entire way. Now they’ll get a crack at this year’s WCC Champ in the Gaels. It’s tough to poke any holes in St. Mary’s, but the offenses grade out pretty similar, so with the Gaels essentially playing at the slowest pace in the country, there’s no reason the Antelopes can’t hang around.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
